Football Bet of the Day: Hosts to win on derby day

• PAOK in terrific form

• Hosts racking up xG at home

PAOK v Aris
Wednesday 04 January, 18:00

We got a bit of a shock early on in Egypt, as Future and Smouha traded early goals, but it stayed 1-1, so we had our stake returned after our Over 2.0 Goals bet bet.

We'll reinvest that money immediately in a Greek escapade, because in-form PAOK are up against Aris in a Thessaloniki derby, and I'm backing the hosts to prevail.

PAOK have found it tough to live with leaders Panathinaikos in the Greek top flight this term, and they are currently fourth in the standings, with Pana, AEK Athens and Olympiakos all ahead of them. However, it's worth noting that PAOK have won four of their last five league matches, and at home they have taken maximum points from six of their last eight games.

Local rivals Aris are only four points behind PAOK, but their away form is underwhelming, with just two wins from the last seven road matches in the top flight. They have failed to score in three of those games.

PAOK are averaging 1.98 xGF in their home games this season, better than Olympiakos and the leaders Panathinaikos, and I think their price of evens to take the victory here is fair enough. They have won 13 of their last 20 home matches in the top flight, and former Norwich striker Nelson Oliveira is in terrific form, having found the net in each of his last four appearances.