Norwich v Hull Tips: Stroud to provide silver lining

• Ref averaged over 5 cards per game in 22/23

• New clampdown in evidence on Friday

• Bet Builder double at evens worth backing

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Norwich v Hull
Saturday 5 August, 15:00

I always find opening weekend a bit tricky.

Any new trends to have been established have only occurred in pre-season and little data exists from such matches.

Instead we find ourselves relying on last season's info but, for those happy to go with such numbers, there looks to be a cards opportunity at Carrow Road in the EFL Championship.

Leg 1: Norwich over 1.5 cards

That's because Keith Stroud has been appointed referee for this game and he was far and away the highest-carding official in the English second flight in 2022/23.

Stroud produced 5.12 yellows per game on average - more than half a card higher than any other ref who took charge of multiple matches.

Over 4.5 cards here is 10/111.91 and worth considering but I'm going for an alternative and that's both teams over 1.5 cards at evens (2.01/1).

That occurred in 12 of Stroud's last 17 matches last season and here we have the added bonus of the early-season clampdown on both time-wasting and dissent.

Leg 2: Hull over 1.5 cards

That was in evidence in Friday night's opening game at Hillsborough where acts of petulance, such as kicking the ball away, were immediately punished with cards - and that by a referee, Bobby Madley, who is usually pretty lenient. That game ended with eight cards.

Admittedly, Hull were one of the least-carded sides in the Championship last term but they were in the top half for fouls committed which shows they could easily come to Mr Stroud's attention.

Norwich, a mid-table side for cards, were also the fourth most-fouled team in 2022/23.

In short, there's enough here to suggest Stroud can again deliver on the cards front so I'll keep things simple on Saturday with the Bet Builder double.

Championship Opta Stats: Best bets from the data!