Newcastle lead PL for set-piece shots
Salisu offers Saints' threat
SF shots Bet Builder at north of 5/1
Newcastle v Southampton
Tuesday 31 January, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Main Event
Long-term readers will know I feel the value in the shots markets often lies with those playing further back and that's the avenue I'm going down for Tuesday night's Carabao Cup semi-final.
Newcastle have had more shots from set-piece situations than any other side in the Premier League this season. And their tally of 115 is considerably more than the next-best team (88). Unsurprisingly, they also lead the league for set-piece expected goals (SP xG).
With Southampton sixth in the set-piece expected goals against (SP xGA) list, this looks another good opportunity for Fabian Schar and Dan Burn.
Schar has had 1+ shot in nine of his last 10 games and he forms the foundation of our Bet Builder.
For those looking for bigger prices, he's had 2+ shots in 10 of 22 during the season.
As well as his threat from corners and free kicks, he likes a shot from distance.
Burn's figures haven't been quite so good as last season but he's still had a shot in six of his last 10 and the 6ft 7in defender will again offer a threat here.
In the midfield, I'm happy to add Sean Longstaff for a shot too, something he's managed in five of his last seven. He can often be found having a dig from outside the box.
Again, the 2+ option is worth considering - that's landed in four of those seven.
Finally, one from the Southampton side.
Trailing 1-0 from the first leg, they really need to have a go at some point here and, hopefully, that can lead to some set-piece situations.
Mohammed Salisu has been dangerous from those for some time now and while the bookies are beginning to cotton on to that, his price of evens for 1+ shot still looks interesting.
He's delivered on that bet in six of his last eight and may also have the advantage of playing here at left-back, a position from which he may be able to have an effort from open play.
It's north of 5/1 about all four men having 1+ shot in this game which is good enough to tempt me in.
Newcastle v Southampton: Read Dave Tindall's in-depth verdict!