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Morocco have been defensively solid
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North Africans have beaten Belgium and held Croatia
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Spain drew with Germany and lost to Japan
Morocco v Spain
Tuesday 06 December, 15:00
Spain have long been touted as one of the winners of this tournament, but their group-stage campaign raised more questions than answers. A 7-0 win over a hapless Costa Rica was the perfect start, but La Roja rode their luck towards the end of their 1-1 draw with Germany, and then lost to Japan.
Defensively, there are concerns. Goalkeeper Unai Simon feels like an accident waiting to happen, and while I accept that coach Luis Enrique asks him to take risks in possession (a style which explains why David de Gea wasn't selected), the Athletic Club keeper does seem to zone out from time to time and make careless and avoidable errors.
The deployment of Rodri at centre-back is a way to squeeze one of the world's best defensive midfielders into a team stacked with midfield talent, but it feels like a fudge, a dangerous compromise that could be exposed by more talented attacking players.
Spain are unlikely to face too much firepower against Morocco, but their challenge will be to break down an incredibly solid defensive unit.
Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou is a calming presence behind Romain Saiss and Nayef Aguerd, with Sofiane Amrabat an influential terrier at the base of midfield. There's pace from full-back with Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui, and imagination in midfield from Hakim Ziyech.
Morocco held Croatia to a 0-0 draw, and they beat Belgium 2-0. They are capable of frustrating Spain here, and I'll back them +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.845/6.
That way you can only lose if Spain win by two goals or more inside 90 minutes. Alternatively you could back the Goal Lines market to back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.01101/100. If the game has two goals you have your stake returned, while if there are no goals or just one goal inside 90 minutes, you get a winner at just above evens.