Sao Paulo v Palmeiras
Monday 20 June, 23:59
There's a Sao Paulo derby clash in store in Brazil's Serie A on Monday night.
While the card markets may seem an obvious place to start for such a match, it's worth noting a couple of things.
First up, this isn't the fiercest modern-day rivalry in Brazil's biggest city - that's between Palmeiras and Corinthians.
Secondly, Anderson Daronco is a relatively lenient official, averaging around 3.5 cards per game so far this season - low by Brazilian standards. Those figures include him showing just three cards in Palmeiras' April clash with Corinthians.
That's not to say there won't be cards but the odds don't accurately reflect the chance of them being shown.
Instead, the props value for this game lies in the shots markets where I'm picking out a Bet Builder at 11/2.
The standout selection looks to be Gustavo Gomez to have 2+ shots for league leaders Palmeiras.
The central defender has landed this in seven of his last 13 starts yet he's out at 12/5 for a repeat.
OK, this is a tricky trip - Sao Paulo sit fifth and are obviously rivals - but it's also worth noting that the Paraguayan played at right-back in his last outing on Thursday, a position from which he managed five shots.
They produced two goals, taking his tally for the campaign to five. He's his side's second top scorer behind Rony.
With Marcos Rocha still injured, Gomez is likely to stick in the full-back position for this contest.
I'm also going to back the hosts' Rodrigo Nestor for 2+ shots.
The midfielder has managed that in eight of 11 starts this season.
Sao Paulo have been strong on home soil, winning four and drawing one so far and scoring 11 goals in those games.
They should make life difficult for their higher-ranked opponents with Nestor looking the man to back from their line-up.
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