Midtjylland v Hvidovre: Ref makes 6/4 look spot on

• Referee gave 15 penalties in 17 league games in 22/23

• Team penalty/fouls data also strong

• Back penalty to be awarded at 6/42.50

Midtjylland v Hvidovre
Friday 21 July, 18:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Let's cut straight to the chase here - we've got a referee who loves awarding penalties.

Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen gave no fewer than 15 in his 17 Danish Superligaen games last season (this is the opener of the new campaign).

He awarded at least one in 10 of those 17 matches which immediately makes odds of 6/42.50 look a tad large.

But the bet is not based entirely on the referee appointment with plenty of supplementary evidence to back the theory up.

Only two teams won more penalties in the Danish League in 2022/23 than Midtjylland, who were also the second most-fouled side in the division.

On the other side of the ball, they were third for most cards received and here they face a Hvidovre side playing their first match in the top flight following promotion.

Third for yellow cards in the second tier last season, the visitors will doubtless be up for this and ready to make an impression so expect a few challenges which could interest the referee.

The hosts are hot favourites to win the game at 2/91.22 so it's fair to say that any penalty is most likely to be awarded in their favour.

They boast last season's top scorer Gustav Isaksen in their ranks so he'll need close attention from the visitors' defence.

Perhaps another way to go is to seek out a potential goalscorer taking the penalty theory into account.

However, sadly, we can't be sure who will take any spot kick as last season's regular, Evander, has left for the MLS.

Logic would suggest they turn to Isasken - for the record, he's 6/52.20 to score at any time.

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