Manchester City v Arsenal Tips: 21/1 Shield Bet Builder

• Community Shield has low-cards trend

• Arsenal new boy Timber top fouler at World Cup

• Related Bet Builders at 6/1 and 21/1

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Manchester City v Arsenal
Sunday 6 August, 16:00
Live on ITV1

Back at the end of last season, this column highlighted how the final day of the Premier League season provides good opportunities for going low on cards and, indeed, we landed an 18/1 no-cards bet in one 'meaningless' game.

While it would be unfair to apply the same tag to the Community Shield, it is fair to say this isn't a particularly big match for either side - both would quickly swap victory here for three points in next weekend's league opener.

Cards in short supply at Wembley

That's long been the case and in recent years it has certainly been a game of few cards. The last five make-ups have been 2-3-1-1-0. The latter involved Manchester City when they faced Chelsea in 2018.

Add in the teams and referee involved and I can't resist a small play on there being no cards again in 2023.

Only West Ham received fewer cards than City and Arsenal in last season's Premier League, while Stuart Attewell was one of the more lenient officials - of the 16 refs who took charge of at least 10 games, he ranked 13th for cards shown.

Therefore, each team under 0.5 cards (available via the Bet Builder option) is worth a try at north of 20/121.00.

Admittedly a more realistic option is under 2.5 cards which, as you can see, has landed in four of the last five Shield contests.

I was surprised to find it on offer at 31/202.55.

Timber to fell rivals

I'll double that up with Jurrien Timber 2+ fouls, which also looks large at 9/52.80.

Arsenal's new defender will be playing his first game in English football, against the world's best team, and (probably) out of his natural position.

There are some suggestions he'll play at right-back, which would be ideal given his likely opponent would then be Jack Grealish, the second most-fouled player (using the fouls-per-game metric) in the Premier League last season.

However, given Aleks Zinchenko's injury, it seems most likely he'll play at left-back, a position he's hardly ever played in his career with Ajax, and that would clearly also bring problems.

No-one committed more fouls than Timber at last year's World Cup - despite the Dutchman only playing four games - and this just looks a price worthy of attention.

The under 2.5 cards/Timber 2+ fouls double pays 6/17.00.

I'll put two-thirds of the stake on that and the other third on the no-cards punt.

Read Tom Victor's in-depth Community Shield preview!