Georgia v Norway Tips: Back visitors for a narrow victory

• Under 2.5 Goals in 8/10 Georgia home qualifiers
  

• Norway have won 5/8 visiting non-elite teams
  

• Back Norway/Under 2.5 Goals
  

Georgia v Norway
Tuesday 17:00 (Live on Viaplay Sports 1)

In Rotterdam yesterday, Gibraltar kept things respectable. They went down 3-0 to the Netherlands. Memphis Depay got the first goal but couldn't add the second we needed.

We're dipping into Group A of Euro 2024 qualifying today for Norway's trip to Georgia. The Norwegians kicked off their campaign with a 3-0 loss in Spain last week, but are favourites for this game, which is Georgia's first.

Georgia won their most recent home qualifier 2-0 against Sweden in 2021. They are W5-D4-L11 since 2014, with Sweden their only notable scalp since a 1-0 win over Scotland in 2015.

Willy Sagnol's men have been keeping things tight though. They've conceded only eight times across 10 home qualifiers since 2019. Eight of those games finished with Under 2.5 Goals in total.

Stale Solbakken's Norway have been fairly robust on the road. They are W5-D3-L3 since 2019, with the defeats coming against Spain (twice) and the Netherlands. Seven of those 11 games stayed Under 2.5 Goals, including 6/8 non-defeats.

The absence of Erling Haaland through injury reduces Norway's goal threat, leaving Arsenal's Martin Odegaard and Sociedad's Alexander Sorloth to pick up the slack. Sorloth was profligate in front of goal against Spain, but the supply line appeared to be open.

The man to watch for the hosts is Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. He's scored in five of his last six internationals, and also in 6/11 in Serie A and the Champions League. To back the man in form, we'd look at combining him to score and both teams to score in a Sportsbook Bet Builder that pays out around 3.929/10.

Despite the attacking talent still on show, it's hard to overlook the low-goals trends on both sides. There aren't many upsets on Georgia's recent record so - with Norway's good record at teams that aren't the Netherlands or Spain - we'll take a punt on the visitors to edge a close one.