Germany v Hungary
Friday 23 September, 19:45 kick-off
Live on Premier Sports 1
Germany ended a strange old run of four straight 1-1 draws with that 5-2 hammering of Italy in June, and can now top their Nations League group if they can beat Hungary in Leipzig.
Hansi Flick's side have gone 13 games unbeaten since losing to England at Euro 2020, but all their wins have come against lower ranked sides - with draws coming against Italy, the Netherlands and England.
The reverse fixture was also a draw, just as it was in their meeting at the Euros, and a third draw in a row against the Germans would keep surprise group leaders Hungary on course for a shock group win.
With just one friendly win over Germany since 1985, we're not giving the Magyars much of a chance of landing a shock 10/1 away win, but they've shown in home and away victories over England that they have the formula to beat the bigger sides.
They've conceded just three goals as their nominal 3-4-3 formation blends into a back five, and they make the very most of limited possession - turning between 31-44% of the ball in their four games so far into seven goals and 22 shots on target from 40 attempts.
Missing Roland Sallai, who scored twice against England at Molineux, is a huge blow for Marco Rossi's side, who are also without Zsolt Nagy so don't have the players who scored four of their seven goals and looked their biggest threats available.
The pressure to provide a goal threat then will be on captain Adam Szalai, who hasn't scored for eight internationals, and RB Leipzig midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai as he plays on his home ground alongside goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi and defender Willi Orban.
Hungary will dig in - so go low on goals
Timo Werner is also playing on home turf, and is 11/10 to add to his tally of eight goals as the leading scorer under new boss Flick.
Werner scored twice against Italy, but midfielders Joshua Kimmich and Jonas Hoffman have been the main men in this campaign with two crucial goals each and an assist.
Hofmann is 8/15 for a goal or assist while Kimmich is 13/8 but a lot of the German player odds look a bit on the skinny side given just how well Hungary can defend, and how they'll likely take that to the extreme when playing without their two top scorers.
Germany being without Manuel Neuer in goal and Leon Goretzka in midfield is a slight worry, but this game will be all about how Germany can break down a Hungary side ready to dig in and fight it out in the defensive trenches.
Hofmann scored with Germany's only shot on target in Budapest and although at home they should have more joy, the 5/1 on the draw may not totally be beyond the realms of possibility, while the 8/5 on the half-time draw should definitely be on the short list.
Under 2.5 goals at 29/20 is also worth a look, as it's come in for five of Germany's last six games and four of Hungary's last six outings. Under 3.5 at 8/15 is the safer option if you want to include it in a Bet Builder.
Cards and corners are interesting - as with Hungary scrapping, fighting and defending, they should easily match the three cards they get in the first meeting at 13/10.