Friday Football Tips: Bank on Berlin to beat Leipzig

We're off to the Bundesliga for Friday's column and the first thing that strikes you when you look at the Union Berlin v RB Leipzig games is just the outright prices, which are hugely at odds with the records of the two teams.

Hosts Union Berlin have suffered just one defeat on their home turf this season, and in fact lost just one of their last 23 at home, yet can be backed to beat Leipzig at 4.03/1.

Leipzig, meanwhile, haven't won away from home all season, managing just three goals in six games, and have players out through injury and Covid - along with coach Jesse Marsch - yet are big favourites at 1.9110/11.

Only one team in the Bundesliga, bottom side Furth, have amassed fewer away points than Leipzig's three and no team has scored fewer away goals than their three - a joint-worst record along with Augsburg and Bochum.

Union have four wins, two draws and that single defeat at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, and that loss came gainst champions Bayern Munich.

But for that one defeat against Bayern, Union have only conceded two goals in their other six home games so when you add that to Leipzig's struggles on the road then it's hard to see how you could peg the visitors as favourites.

That's even without their injury and Covid problems.

So I think Union Berlin here are a great bet to win this one, but using the stats as we do in this column we can go a step further and back the capital side to win with under 2.5 goals at a rather healthy-looking 9.28/1 on the exchange.

Only two of Berlin's seven home games have gone over 2.5, while none of Leipzig's away games have had three goals or more in them - these are stats that we just can't ignore when hunting for value.

It's a rather simple bet but when all the stats are so conclusive and with the availability issues Leipzig are facing, it's just a bet too good to turn down.