Bet of the Day: Croatia v England: Back goals and Harry Kane to be fouled through Bet Builder

Croatia v England - Three Lions head to Rijeka 

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Saturday 3 October, 17:00
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England are 4/51.80 favourites to make it back-to-back Nations League wins, but this is not the kind of away fixture where I'd be rushing to take a short price on the Three Lions.

There is an added layer here, too. This match is being played behind closed doors, stripping Croatia of one of the most obvious advantages they would normally possess.

That is particularly interesting from a betting perspective because the research around empty stadiums suggests home advantage is reduced significantly, with home teams generally seeing declines in their win percentages.

That doesn't automatically make England a bet at 4/51.80, though. The key is whether the market has already priced that information in. I think it has.

For me, this is a game where the traditional 1X2 market needs to be treated with caution. Croatia at 3/14.00 is certainly interesting, while England's 4/51.80 price demands a level of dominance that may not be reflected in the underlying numbers, especially with the continued vulnerability about them in defence.

The more attractive opportunities certainly lie elsewhere.

Croatia v England Tip 1 - Back the over 2.5 line

The behind-closed-doors element could be a dangerous distraction when assessing the goals market here.

Over 2.5 goals is the 4/61.67 favourite, with Under 2.5 available at 23/202.15, and I can understand why some punters will be tempted by the bigger price on the unders. Take away the home crowd and it is easy to build a narrative around a cagey contest, particularly with the game being played in unusual circumstances.

But the research around matches played without spectators doesn't really support the idea that goals suddenly dry up. While home advantage tends to diminish, the numbers point to total goals remaining broadly consistent. That makes me reluctant to use the empty stadium as a reason to automatically oppose goals.

There is also some useful Croatia-specific evidence. When Croatia have been priced bigger than 1/21.50 in matches of this nature, 13 of their last 19 have seen both teams score. That is a sizeable sample and suggests there is more potential for an open game than the setting might initially imply.

And the most recent World Cup meeting between these nations certainly won't frighten anyone backing goals, finishing 4-2 where England really pummelled Croatia in a dominant spell after the break. England do carry a high-level of attacking threat and are capable of clearing this line on their own if they get going.

At [4/6], over 2.5 goals isn't exactly dripping in value, but I wouldn't be rushing to follow the under narrative simply because there won't be a crowd. The evidence points towards goals remaining very much the logical play and starting point for any bets.

Czechia v England Tip 2 - Kane to be targeted?

Harry Kane to be fouled at least twice at 13/82.63 is a prop that immediately caught my eye.

There is a clear historical reason for it. Kane has drawn six fouls across his three major-tournament meetings with Croatia, highlighting just how keen the opposition are to disrupt England's main attacking reference point. It's a common method to try and stop Kane dictating matters from deep.

He is not a striker who simply waits on the shoulder of the last defender, either. Kane has developed a particularly wily knack of dropping into the pocket, inviting pressure and using his body intelligently to draw contact.

That could be especially relevant here given his likely duel with Luka Vuskovic. The Brighton defender has averaged 1.9 fouls per 90 for Croatia and, even more significantly for this market, has committed at least one foul in 16 of his last 17 starts for club and country.

That doesn't mean Kane automatically clears two, of course, but it gives us a route into a market that should give us a great run for our money. England rank high for fouls drawn under Thomas Tuchel, drawing 13.2 per match in competitive matches under his watch.

At 13/82.63, we need Kane to draw two fouls for the bet to land. Given Croatia's obvious need to manage his movement between the lines, plus Vuskovic's willingness to commit fouls, this looks like a player prop worth keeping on your radar.

Combining Kane to win two or more fouls along with over 2.5 goals gives us a nice 15/82.88 shot to attack through Betfair's Bet Builder offer.

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