France v Poland: Mbappe to punish Poles

• France won 2/2 group games with their first team
  

• Poland failed to score in 2/3 group matches

• Kylian Mbappe has had more shots on target than anyone else at Qatar 2022

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France v Poland

Sunday 15:00 (Live on BBC One)

Group D winners France take on Group C runners-up Poland this afternoon. The winner of this match will face the winner of England's game this evening with Senegal in the quarter finals of Qatar 2022.

France lost their final group match 1-0 earlier this week, but that was the reserve team and, with the starters returning today, Didier Deschamps's men will be heavy favourites to go through.

It's hard to argue with their status. From Robert Lewandowski's missed penalty in their opening 0-0 with Mexico to the whole team's unwillingness to attack Argentina in their most recent group game, the Poles have been underwhelming. They are here because they beat Saudi Arabia. France are levels above the Saudis.

Fielding their strongest team, the reigning champions beat Australia 4-1 and Denmark 2-1. Kylian Mbappe has been the star man. The PSG forward has scored three times. He's also had more shots (16) and more shots on target (7) than anyone else in the tournament - despite playing less than half an hour of the Tunisia game.

On the Exchange, he's odds-against to score today and, with those strong underlying stats on side, that's a bet we'd take. Over on the Sportsbook, you can get a slightly longer price by putting Mbappe to score together with France to win in a Bet Builder.

Going back to June, Poland's last seven matches have all finished with Under 2.5 Goals, with at least one side failing to score in all seven. Czeslaw Michniewicz's men will probably set up to frustrate the French, but it's worth noting the Poles themselves have blanked in 4/7.

The France Win To Nil could be tempting, although Les Bleus have logged just one clean sheet from their last nine games.

Ultimately, Poland are likely to be heavily reliant on Lewandowski to be clinical with whatever chances he gets, but that probably won't be enough to match a French forward line boasting Dembele, Griezmann, Giroud and that man Mbappe. We'll take the favourites to win - and the Golden Boot favourite to get his goal.