Barcelona v Inter Milan: Shoot for profit in semi-final

Andy Schooler
Published on 30 Apr 2025 at 12:45
1:30 min read

Barcelona and Brazil forward Raphinha — Raphinha features in our 12/5 Bet Builder

Our football props column is aiming to mine the shots on target market when Barcelona host Inter Milan in the Champions League semi-finals on Wednesday.

Inter conceded 40 shots over two legs v Bayern
Barca front men should get shot chances
Add Martinez for SOT to form 12/53.40 Bet Builder
Check out Paul Higham's Build Up tips at the foot of the page

Barcelona v Inter Milan
Wednesday 30 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

Before I turn to the angles I do like, let's start with a word of warning.

Referee Clement Turpin is one of the most lenient in this season's Champions League - he's averaging just 1.5 cards per game over his six matches and is also well above average for fouls (18.67 v 21.28).

I'd therefore be very reluctant to get involved in the card and fouls markets.

Legs 1, 2 & 3: Ferran Torres, Raphinha & Lamine Yamal 1+ shot on target each

Shots, on the other hand, is a different matter.

Barcelona average 17 in their Champions League home games this season and recently managed a massive 40 against Mallorca in La Liga.

Inter have been happy to sit deep and look to break on teams - it worked very well against Bayern Munich in the last round when they conceded 20 shots in each leg. For the record, 13 of the 40 were on target.

I'm not hugely enthused by the shot lines regarding Barca's stars but I'm more prepared to take a chance on the shots on target market in a bid to get a decent price.

Robert Lewandowski's thigh injury looks set to keep him out so it's likely to be Ferran Torres through the middle with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal either side.

Torres, a scorer in Saturday's Copa del Rey final win over Real Madrid, has had a shot on target in 13 of his 15 starts this season.

As for the two side men, they've each landed the 1+ SOT bet in 12 of their last 14 starts.

Leg 4: Lautaro Martinez 1+ shot on target

To bump our Bet Builder price a bit higher, I'm also adding Inter's Lautaro Martinez for a shot on target.

The Argentine World Cup winner has scored in his last five Champions League matches and will be a huge threat on the break against a Barca defence which does tend to give up chances.

Martinez has had a shot on target in nine of his last 10 starts, while in the Champions League this season, he's delivered on this bet in six of his seven starts.

Put the four selections together and you get a 12/53.40 shot.

Recommended Bet

Back Torres, Raphinha, Yamal & Martinez 1+ shot on target each

SBK12/5

More Barca v Inter: Read Kevin Hatchard's big-match verdict!

Recommended bets

Back Ferran Torres, Raphinha, Lamine Yamal & Lautaro Martinez 1+ shot on target each in Barcelona v Inter Milan @ around 12/53.40

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 286pts
Returned: 308.3pts
2024/25 P/L: +22.3pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

Paul Higham's Build Up Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

Inter's Lautaro Martinez is a man to back against Barcelona as he's in superb form having scored in his last five Champions League games, but we'll not go so far as tou back him to bag another.

Instead we'll take Martinez to win a Shots On Target Match Ups bet against Barcelona's Ferran Torres, who will be starting up front in place of the injured Robert Lewandowski.

We get 17/102.70 on Martinez to win this one, with 11 shots on target in those last five goalscoring outings going up against Torres with just one Champions League start this season.

Even with home advantage I'd rather side with the dangerous Inter man on this one.

Recommended Bet

Back Martinez more shots on target than Torres

SBK17/10

Player to commit more fouls

There's not much between Barcelona's Frenkie de Jong and Inter's Alessandro Bastoni as we pit the two against each other in a Fouls Match Up wager, but preference goes to the Italian defender.

He's got 11 fouls to De Jong's 10, but playing away from home is always more difficult for defenders, and given the wealth of attacking talent the home side have he'll be in the firing line a lot more.

Dutch midfielder de Jong can throw his weight around, but he'll likely have less combative work to do so I think conditions are right for Bastoni to win this one.

Recommended Bet

Back Bastoni to commit more fouls than De Jong

SBK13/10

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