Denmark v Australia: How to turn odds-on Danes to odds-against

• Australia have one clean sheet from 16 WC finals games
  

• 5/6 Denmark WC games have ended with Under 2.5 Goals
  

• Simon Kjaer should be back for Denmark
  

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Australia v Denmark
Wednesday 15:00 (Live on BBCi)

The final round of matches from Group D brings Australia together with Denmark. Having beaten Tunisia 1-0 last time out, the Aussies are second.

A win today would be good enough for the Last 16; a draw would also be enough - unless Tunisia shock France. Denmark need to win.

They might have drawn 0-0 with Tunisia and lost 2-1 to France, but the Danes are odds-on favourites to get the result they need.

Kasper Hjulmand's men have not been especially thrusting in attack so far, but they will fancy their chances against an Aussie team that's already conceded four to France, and whose clean sheet against Tunisia was their first in 16 World Cup finals games since 2006.

At the other end, Australia have scored once in both of their matches so far, but if the Danes set up a defensive wall, Graham Arnold's men might struggle to break it down.

Since the start of the 2018 tournament, 5/6 of Denmark's World Cup games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, with the Danes conceding only four times across those six matches.

The Danes will be close to full strength for today's game. Although midfielder Thomas Delaney is out of the tournament, veteran defender Simon Kjaer should return at the back after missing the France game.

Denmark's stronger defence looks like it could be the edge they want to get the result they need. Australia have hardly been prolific upfront: in qualifying for Qatar, they struck just once across four matches with fellow qualifiers Saudi Arabia and Japan, who are probably Asian qualifying's closest match for an outfit like Denmark.

We'll back the Danes to get the job done here. The Denmark Win to Nil has some appeal at around 2.407/5 but we'll take the bigger price on a Denmark and Under 2.5 Goals double, which you can either back on the Sportsbook via the Bet Builder - or on the Exchange's dedicated Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.