Costa Rica have only had a single shot on target in Qatar
Germany tend to put weaker teams to the sword
Serge Gnabry could be the difference maker - if he starts
Costa Rica v Germany
Thursday 19:00 (Live on ITV X)
Going into the final round of Group E matches, all four teams can still qualify for the Last 16.
Costa Rica bounced back from a 7-0 thrashing by Spain to beat Japan 1-0 in their second match. If they win this game, the Ticos will be through to the Last 16. A draw will be enough for them if Spain beat Japan.
Having lost 2-1 to Japan then drawn 1-1 with Spain, Germany's challenge is straightforward: they need to win and hope Spain beat Japan.
Hansi Flick's men are heavy favourites, of course, and that seems fair. Although Costa Rica shocked Japan, they did so courtesy of their only shot on target. Against Spain, the Central Americans served up no shots on target.
One shot on target across 180 minutes of action does not suggest they'll trouble the Germans today. Although Germany have managed just one clean sheet in their last ten matches (including friendlies), the Germany Win to Nil might still be a tempting bet.
At the other end, Germany are lacking an out-and-out goalscorer - though you might have said the same about Spain before they put Costa Rica to the sword. The Germans have only scored more than once in 2/10 recently, but a lot of those games were against stronger teams than Costa Rica (Italy twice, England twice, Hungary twice, the Netherlands, Spain).
However, taking on weaker teams in European qualifying last autumn, Germany beat Armenia 4-1 and 4-0, Iceland 4-0 and North Macedonia 4-0. They also had more shots on target (12) than anyone except France and Cameroon through the first two rounds of Qatar 2022. We wouldn't be surprised to see them strike multiple times today.
Serge Gnabry has had 12 penalty box touches and 8 shots on goal across Germany's two matches - more than any of his team-mates on both counts. He also scored four in his final two matches for Bayern Munich before coming to Qatar. He's around 1.9010/11 to score today.
Before piling into the goalscorer markets, just check Hansi Flick's team selection. Musiala, Gundogan, Gnabry and Muller was his front four last time, but Leroy Sane looked dangerous coming off the bench and might have earnt a starting spot, possibly ahead of Gnabry. Another sub, Werder Bremen striker Niclas Fullkrug, got the crucial goal against Spain and is also pushing for a start.
Without seeing the team sheets, we'll back Germany -2.5 on the Asian Handicap. If Gnabry or maybe Sane start, we'll be looking to use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to create a multiple involving them to score and that handicap bet.