Paul Higham's World Cup best bet for Thursday is for Morocco to make the knockouts with Achraf Hakimi and Hakim Ziyech exploiting an over-eager Canada side desperate to grab a first ever win...
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Morocco lost just three of last 42 games
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Ziyech & Hakimi to prosper on the break
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Morocco's spectacular 2-0 win over Belgium has put them in a fantastic position to qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup for just the second time as they take on already-eliminated Canada.
After an opening 0-0 with Croatia, the Atlas Lions are in the lofty position of only needing a draw to guarantee qualification, but they could even lose to Canada by a couple of goals and still progress if Belgium fail to beat Croatia.
Walid Regregui's side haven't conceded a goal yet though and that'll be their starting point again as they look to become the first African side to concede less than two goals in the group stages since Morocco themselves did it in 1986.
Mexico 86 is a theme for both sides - the last time Morocco qualified and the only other appearance by Canada, who went home winless and goalless, but through Alphonso Davies' 67-second header against Croatia they at least have broken their World Cup duck at the fifth time of asking.
And they'll be going all-out to score again with head coach John Herdman urging his side to at least end Qatar 2022 with a slice of history and a first ever World Cup win for the Maple Leafs.
Morocco have won two and drawn one of their three meetings with Canada - and although they could be dangerous if they put it all together going forward, an over eager Canadian side will be left wide open to the Moroccan counter attack.
There's always a danger of nerves creeping in of course, but this is a Morocco side with just three defeats inside 90 minutes in 42 games (W31 D8) stretching back three years, so they're a team that is seriously tough to beat.
I'm happy to back Morocco to win at 23/20 here as even though they're out, Canada will throw everything at them to try and get this first World Cup win so I don't see it fizzling into a draw like you would otherwise expect from a final group game with one team already out.
Canada have had 29 efforts on goal in the World Cup and only hit the target four times, so backing the likes of Jonathan David (eight shots; one on target) at 4/11 to hit the target against a defence that's only allowed four shots on target in two games against Croatia and Belgium seems too much of a risk.
Instead, we'll focus on the right side of the Morocco team where right-back Achraf Hakimi and forward Hakim Ziyech form one of the better combinations in the tournament.
In particular their pace and direct running could be huge when Canada and Alphonso Davies go marauding forward in search of a goal, leaving plenty of space in behind.
Ziyech could score or provide so backing him for a goal or assist at 11/10 comes into play here, while for Hakimi we'll plump for the same 11/10 price on him to have just 1+ shot on target.
Hakimi has hit the target once from his two shots, but he's also had more touches inside the opposition box than anyone else on his team so he should get himself into the right areas to have a crack.
There may not be a load of goals in this game, but Morocco look perfectly set-up to take advantage of what action there is.