Monday Football Tips: Red to be seen in basement battle

• Team and ref stats look good for red card

• Sobrino value to go into the book

• 10/1 Bet Builder for crunch La Liga clash

With opportunities limited for props punters on Monday, let's try what is largely a data-based play.

Red-card numbers have risen significantly this season in La Liga - they have ben 0.44 per game so far, up from 0.24 over the course of 2021/22 - and I'm not sure the market has caught up.

These two sides are towards the top of the collection list too - Cadiz have seen five and Elche six. Both are firmly in the bottom half of the fair-play league.

The referee, Carlos del Cerro Grande, is also a good appointment in terms of the chances of a dismissal.

While in total-card terms Cerro Grande been on the lenient side of average this season, he's managed a red tally of four in his nine La Liga games, showing at least one in three. In all competitions, he's produced a red card in four of his last seven.

This is also a big game at the bottom of the table - Cadiz occupy the final relegation spot, while Elche are rock-bottom. Both will see this is a big opportunity so it should be competitive.

In terms of individuals, Ruben Sobrino looks the value play to be shown a card.

The Cadiz forward, who is averaging just under two fouls per game, has been carded in four of his last seven starts. If you want a bigger data sample, go back to the end of last season and the figures become a still-impressive six in 17.

I say impressive because the odds on him being booked here are out at 10/3. Only two players are rated less likely to be carded and that doesn't look right.

A card for Sobrino and a red one for any player (of course, the bet could land in one go) makes a Bet Builder with odds of around 10/1 which would be a nice way to start the week.

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