Saturday Football Tips: Back FA Cup low-cards double at 7/2

• Ref Webb has gone under 2.5 cards in 17 of his last 22 FA Cup ties

• Lenient official also in charge of Saints v Burnley

• Back low-cards Bet Builder double at around 7/24.50

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Wigan v Fulham
Southampton v Burnley
Saturday 8 February, 15:00

I explained how referees tend to go a little easy on teams in the FA Cup, certainly in terms of dishing out cards, ahead of round three and the theory was rewarded with a 21/1 no-cards winner.

I fully expect the low card counts to continue at this last-32 stage and spent a while this week looking at the stats in a bid to nail down specific games.

I always start with the referees, looking for the most lenient, and then - ideally - matching them up with well-behaved teams.

Leg 1: Under 2.5 cards in Wigan v Fulham

We haven't got the perfect combination on Saturday but that isn't going to stop me getting involved in some way.

The Wigan v Fulham games appears to have plenty of potential and I was hoping for another chunky price for no cards.

However, for some reason there's no market on that outcome, so instead I'm going to back under 2.5 cards at 6/42.50.

While neither side is Referee's Pet, so to speak, this is a classic cup tie of lower league v top flight and that sort of match-up often sees the referees offer some leeway.

It's the official who really makes this bet.

David Webb was the man who helped us land that 21/122.00 shot last month.

He's averaging under three cards per game in the Championship this season and in all competitions has shown no cards in four games.

A look through his FA Cup history shows he's gone under this 2.5 mark in 17 of his last 22 ties, including nine of the last 11. Six of his last 29 have seen no cards.

Leg 2: Under 3.5 cards in Southampton v Burnley

In a slightly different approach to usual, I'm going to double that bet up with a similar one from another game, namely under 3.5 cards in Southampton v Burnley.

Some will be surprised given Southampton have been the Premier League's bad boys this season but again we have the division gap in-play, plus an excellent ref for low-card games.

Will Finnie is bang on three cards per game across all competitions this season, while two of his four domestic cup ties have seen no cards at all.

Saints' presence here is reflected in the odds but we're still able to get under 3.5 at 5/61.84.

That results in an under-cards double of around 7/24.50, which seems fair enough.

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