Saturday Football Tips: Take punt on no cards at 21/1

• FA Cup averages fewer cards than league competitions

• Ref has gone under 2.5 cards in 16 of last 21 ties

• Back low-card bets at 21/103.10 and 21/122.00

Leicester v QPR
Saturday 11 January, 14:00

On average, cards counts in the FA Cup are considerably lower than the Premier League and EFL, so I like to try to find a no-card game or two on third-round day.

Bet 1: Both teams under 0.5 cards

The way I approach it is, first of all, to find a referee who is both lenient during the current season and also has a good track record for going low on cards in this competition.

Step forward David Webb.

He's averaging exactly three cards per game in the Championship, while across the last 10 seasons in the FA Cup, 16 of his 21 ties have seen under 2.5 cards, including eight of the last 10.

In his entire FA Cup career, five of his 31 matches have produced no cards at all.

Ideally, you want to match up the lenient ref with two teams high up in their fair-play tables.

Admittedly, that's not really the case here but, sadly, there wasn't one game where all three factors slotted neatly into place - the first time in many years of applying this theory that that's happened.

Still, we have got a tie between two teams from different divisions, which tends to help keep the cards down, while QPR are very much mid-table when it comes to fair play, which is hardly a disaster.

In short, I think it's worth taking a risk here as the downsides are clearly built into the price - both teams under 0.5 cards can be backed at 21/122.00.

Bet 2: Under 2.5 cards

Given Webb's under 2.5 cards record in the competition, I'd suggest putting two-thirds of the stake on that at 21/103.10 with the other third on the no-cards bet.

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