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Ref has shown 6+ cards in 6 of 9 this season
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Tapia with long-term card history
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Villarreal v Celta Vigo
Wednesday 20 December, 20:30
Live on Viaplay Sports 2
It was pretty gut-wrenching to see yesterday's 21/1 shot miss by a single foul but there's another opportunity to be had in La Liga on Wednesday.
Once again, it's a battle towards the bottom of the table with 15th-placed Villarreal separated from Celta Vigo, in 18th, by just three points.
Leg 1: 6 or more cards in the match
The importance of the match only goes to strengthen the case for cards.
We've got the second-best referee for cards in Cesar Soto Grado - he's averaging 6.33 yellows per game - while Villarreal sit third bottom of the fair-play table.
Admittedly, Celta are at the other end of that list, although they have been shown four reds (only two teams have had more) and, interestingly, Soto Grado has already awarded them eight cards in two meetings this season.
Overall, Soto Grado has landed the 6+ cards bet in six of his nine La Liga games this season and that makes the base of our Bet Builder.
Leg 2: Renato Tapia to be shown a card
I'm also tempted by Celta's Renato Tapia to be shown a card in this one.
The Peruvian midfielder has been something of a card magnet over the years in Spain and he's recently won his place back in the Celta side.
Tapia has only been carded once (well, twice actually but in the same game) in his five starts this term but his long-term record is much more appealing:
- 22/23 - carded in 7 of 28 league appearances
- 21/22 - 10 of 29
- 20/21 - 12 of 32
Given the 'six-point' nature of this game and the referee appointment, Tapia gets the nod for a card here at 11/5.
Leg 3: Jonathan Bamba 1+ shot on target
Finally, it's worth heading to the shots markets because Villarreal have conceded more shots than any La Liga side, while Celta, despite their lowly league position, sit fifth for shots taken.
Jonathan Bamba for 1+ shot on target looks the bet.
He's landed this in 13 of 18 games this season and with Iago Aspas suspended, there's every chance he sees more of the ball and delivers even more of his sides' shot output.
Villarreal are also missing several first-choice players so Bamba is added to the Bet Builder which works out as a 7/1 shot.
Now read Paul Higham's EFL Cup QF preview!
Recommended bets
Back 6+ cards, Renato Tapia to be shown a card & Jonathan Bamba 1+ shot on target @ around 7/18.00Column P/L 2023/24
Staked: 126pts
Returned: 144.2pts
P/L: +18.2pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts