Sunday Football Tips: Back Lisbon derby card double at 9/2

• Lisbon derby has track record for lots of cards

• Kokcu and Hjulmand also have strong card history

• Back 9/2 cards-based Bet Builder on Sunday

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Sporting Lisbon v Benfica
Sunday 29 December, 20:30
Live on TrillerTV

I've already previewed two games this week suggesting cards were on the menu and been hideously wrong on both occasions.

I'm hoping it's third time lucky and if we don't get cards in the Lisbon derby - one between the top two in the league, separated by just a single point - then it really probably is time to throw in the towel.

The games between the 'Big Three' in the Portuguese league have long produced some of the highest card counts in Europe and this particular fixture has seen at least 80 booking points (that's 10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) in 10 of the last 18 meetings.

It's no real surprise then to see the total card markets rather short - 8+ is odds-on at 4/7 - but I'm happier to play in the player-card market.

Leg 1: Orkun Kokcu to be shown a card

Again, odds are thinner than what you would expect in a run-of-the-mill game but hopefully I've explained why.

I'm simply going to pick the player from each side who I consider most likely to be carded - and that's not any at the very top of the market.

I'll start with the visitors' Orkun Kokcu, who is a player who has a great track record of picking up big-game cards.

He's only had the one start in the Lisbon derby so far but was booked in that game. He's also been carded in two of four starts in O Classico against Porto.

Those stats have followed the midfielder's move from the Netherlands where he was carded four times out of seven playing for Feyenoord against PSV and three times in five outings against Ajax.

So far this season, Kokcu has been carded in six of 14 league appearances so I feel there's still some juice in his price of 13/82.63.

Leg 2: Morten Hjulmand to be shown a card

For Sporting, Morten Hjulmand looks the top pick from the market.

The Danish midfielder has been carded in three of his four starts in this fixture and has already received six cards this season.

The double pays 9/25.50. I know that price about a player-card double won't be for everyone but there you go.

For those looking to boost it, it's worth noting that both teams to score has landed in the last six derbies and nine of the last 10.

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