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Friday Football Tips: Back Baena in 16/1 Bet Builder

A view of Sevilla's Estadio Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan
Sevilla's Estadio Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan plays host to Villarreal on Friday night

Our football props column is taking a punt on a 16/1 shot in La Liga on Friday with Alex Baena the player under the spotlight.


Sevilla v Villarreal
Friday 23 August, 20:30
Live on Premier Sports 1

Alex Baena led La Liga for assists last season, racking up 14, and so it's a little surprising to see him chalked at 5/16.00 for one in this game.


Leg 1: Alex Baena anytime assist

Baena's efforts for Villarreal helped them to an eighth-placed finish, six positions and 12 points better off than their hosts. Only the top four scored more than the 'Yellow Submarine'.

The main difference this time around is that centre forward Alexander Sorloth has moved on (to Atletico Madrid) but Arnaut Danjuma has returned. While his loan spell at Everton was pretty miserable, the Dutchman has a strong record in this division and he was quickly back in the groove last weekend, scoring in a decent 2-2 draw against Atletico Madrid. Gerard Moreno also knows where the goal is.

Sevilla also drew their opener 2-2, albeit a point at Las Palmas was probably not quite what they'd hoped for.

They had the fifth worst expected goals against (xGA) figure last season and so it's no surprise to see them only slight favourites despite holding home advantage.

In short, there's plenty of scope for Baena, who has played at both Euro 2024 and the Olympics this summer, to click back into assisting mode.

Leg 2: Alex Baena to be shown a card

For a real chunky priced Bet Builder, I'm also going to put Baena down for a card.

The left winger was carded in 12 of his 33 starts last season with only three teams picking up more bookings than Villarreal.

One of them was Sevilla, while the referee is the high-carding Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, so there looks every chance of a few bookings in this one.

Baena to assist and be shown a card is offered at north of 16/117.00. It's worth a punt at the price.


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Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 38pts
P/L: -11.77pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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Andy Schooler avatar

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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