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Tuesday Football Tips: Copa Libertadores Bet Builder pays 8/1

An aerial view of River Plate's Estadio Monumental
River Plate's Monumental ground will be buzzing on Tuesday night

Our football props column is shunning the team-news guessing game of the Carabao Cup in favour of the Copa Libertadores semi-final on Tuesday.


River Plate v Atletico Mineiro
Tuesday 29 October, 00:30 (GMT, Wed)

With domestic cup competitions taking centre stage across Europe this week, punters have the familiar problem of second-guessing the team news - certainly those who, like this column, need to make their decisions early.

I've rarely had much interest in the Carabao Cup et al when it comes to betting and I make no apologies for heading across the Atlantic to find a match where strong teams will be chosen and maximum effort given.

This is the second leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-final so a huge prize is at stake.

The problem is Atletico bring a 3-0 lead to Buenos Aires so it's undeniable that there's a chance this one turns out to be something of a damp squib.

That said, there's clearly also the potential for a humdinger, especially if River score early in what will be a fervent atmosphere at the Monumental, a stadium which will also host the final next month.

If River needed an extra incentive, that provides it and they will surely be giving this a right go with a nothing-to-lose attitude.

The concern for their fans will be the team's lack of goals of late - they've managed only one in their last five matches and have scored multiple goals in just one of their last 11.

That's also a concern for punters considering how to get with hosts. River look short in a host of markets, notably the shots ones with star striker Miguel Borja odds-on for 5+. He's 7/5 to score, something that will be highly likely if River manage to turn this around - he has 28 goals for the season to date.

Leg 1: Both teams to score

However, I feel a better bet is to back both teams to score at evens.

For all River's scoring problems, the fact is that only two teams have conceded more goals than Atletico in the Brazilian top flight this season and both sit in the relegation zone.

I'm therefore pretty confident River can make a breakthrough but however you look at it, they are going to have to pile forward at some point and it's almost inevitable that gaps are left.

And, as they showed last week, Atletico have the talent to capitalise.

In short, given the way this game is set up, evens looks a good price in this market, while the fact that five of the last six semi-final second legs in this competition have landed this bet only adds to confidence.

Leg 2: Guilherme Arana to be shown a card

There must also be a good chance that this turns a bit narky, as Argentina v Brazil clashes have a tendency to do.

The appointment of referee Wilmar Roldan is certainly an eyecatcher. He's shown a whopping 73 cards in 10 CONMEBOL club competition matches this season.

Again, the markets are fairly clued up to this but there's often a bit of value to be found in the player-card market and it's there where I'm turning to the visitors' left-back Guilherme Arana.

The Brazil international leads his side's card tally this season having collected 11 from 41 starts and, as captain, will be out to lead by example.

Atletico will likely use every trick available to them, if necessary, to reach the final and so Arana looks a strong candidate for a card if this one gets feisty.

Yet he's nowhere near the top of the market, with 11/43.75 on offer about him receiving another card.

The double pays north of 8/19.00.


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Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 105pts
Returned: 130.32pts
P/L: +25.32pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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