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Tuesday Football Tips: Goals galore in Home Park replay

Daniel Farke
Daniel Farke's Leeds are in flying form

Paul Higham has run the numbers and the outcome is to back plenty of goals at Home Park as Plymouth host Leeds in their FA Cup fourth round replay...


Plymouth v Leeds
FA Cup fourth round replay
Tuesday 6 February, 19:45 GMT kick-off
Live on BBC One

Leeds have to make the long journey down to Devon to do it all again after Plymouth bagged a 1-1 draw in their initial FA Cup tie at Elland Road.

Leeds had beaten Argyle 2-1 in the league meeting in November, and the draw last time is the only game they haven't won in the seven they've played this year, with six wins seeing them storm up to within a point of the automatic promotion spots in the Championship.

Daniel Farke's eyes will firmly be on a Premier League return so although he'll want to maintain Leeds' 10-game unbeaten run, he knows the FA CUp is not his top priotiy, so I'd expect changes.

Leeds are still well-fancied at 8/131.61 to get the job done in 90 minutes - but the last thing Farke wants on the long trip to Home Park is extra time...

Leg 1: Both teams to score first half

Just the 1/21.50 on both teams to score and rightly so, as even a changed Leeds will be a threat and Plymouth have a great record with scoring at home.

But that Home Park record stands up an even better bet with six of their last seven Championship games at home seeing both sides score in the first half.

It's a tremendous run that just can't be ignored, so we'll back the both teams to score in the first half to land again at 5/23.50.

Leg 2: Over 3.5 goals

If you want goals, get yourself to Home Park - it's worth the long journey down to Devon as goals have been flowing in recent games.

Plymouth have remarkably scored at least twive in their last nine home games - but even better they've bagged three in each of the last five.

And the goals aren't limited to the hosts, as the away sides have bagged plenty too with a couple of 3-3 draws recentl contributing to 28 goals being scored in the last six.

Over 3.5 goals here then is surprisingly 13/102.30 given the stats.

Back over 3.5 goals & both teams to score in first half of Plymouth v Leeds @ 7/24.50

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