Wednesday Football Tips: Tunisia can take step closer to World Cup

• Group leaders Tunisia yet to concede

• Four of their last six wins saw under 2.5 goals

• Back Bet Builder double at around 7/42.75

Liberia v Tunisia
Wednesday 19 March, 16:00

We're getting there, slowly.

There will finally be some football to get excited about on Thursday when the Nations League quarter-finals (and play-offs) take place but, for now, the fixture list continues to look as thin as gruel.

Oliver Twist may have asked for more. I'm not so sure.

Wednesday's programme does at least show a few internationals - after all, that's what this week is all about, isn't it? - with World Cup qualifiers taking place in Africa.

I'm drawn to this game which sees group leaders Tunisia head to third-placed Liberia.

It's worth pointing out at this stage that the group winners qualify for the 2026 finals with the best four (of eight) runners-up heading to the play-offs.

In short, Tunisia will be very keen to win to stay ahead of second-placed Namibia, while Liberia know they need a result if they are to maintain serious hopes of reaching the main event in USA, Mexico and Canada.

On the face of it, Liberia may fancy their chances - a look at the table shows they've only lost one of their opening four fixtures and have conceded only two goals in the process.

They say the numbers don't lie but, on this occasion, they aren't exactly telling the whole truth.

Leg 1: Tunisia to win

Liberia lost 1-0 at home to Equatorial Guinea but that result was expunged and the hosts awarded a 3-0 victory due to their opponents fielding an ineligible player.

They've also lost 1-0 at home to Malawi and their only on-field win was a 1-0 success against whipping boys Sao Tome and Principe.

By contrast, Tunisia have won three of four, only being held away to closest rivals Namibia.

Tunisia have yet to concede in their four qualifiers so far but haven't been full of goals - two of their wins have come via a 1-0 scoreline, while they also struggled on that front in the recent Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, scoring only seven in six games.

My approach will therefore be to back the visitors to claim a narrow win.

Leg 2: Under 2.5 goals

Tunisia are 3/41.75 to claim the three points but that can be bumped up to around 7/42.75 by adding under 2.5 goals. That basically means a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Tunisians.

Four of their last six victories have come via one of these scorelines, while they've kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 17 internationals.

As for Liberia, seven of their last 10 full internationals have seen under 2.5 goals so, if you are going to back a Tunisia win, adding the low-goals element looks a pretty good way of getting a better price.

Now read Nations League guide: Spain favourites ahead of QF ties