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FA Cup ties see lower card counts on average
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Good ref and both teams in top half of fair-play table
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Back 5/23.50 and 29/130.00 shots at Goodison Park
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Everton v Crystal Palace
Wednesday 17 January, 19:45
Some of you will have read my FA Cup previews earlier this month which espoused the low-cards theory in the competition.
Basically, the cards-per-game average is lower than in the Premier League, to use an example.
Sadly, I didn't pick the right games, although the always tastily priced no-cards bet did land in a few matches, including the Wigan v Liverpool TV clash and Norwich v Bristol Rovers.
The latter pair replay on Wednesday but I like a low-carding referee to be involved so I'm swerving that tie and heading to Goodison Park.
Bet 1: Back both teams under 0.5 cards
Tony Harrington takes charge of the all-Premier League replay and he's shown just four cards across his two top-flight games this season.
As for his FA Cup record, that fits the bill nicely with under 2.5 cards landing in 11 of 19. There have been three games without a card in that series.
Moving on to the teams, who drew 0-0 at Selhurst Park almost two weeks ago, they are both in the top half of the Premier League fair play table.
In the original game was notable largely for Dominic Calvert-Lewin's sending off, although that was later rescinded. The other two cards in the contest were shown for a dive and dissent so it wasn't a dirty game.
The Bet Builder combining both the home and away side to have under 0.5 cards pays around 29/130.00.
Bet 2: Under 2.5 cards
However, we all know that it doesn't take much to go wrong there, so the safer option is to go under 2.5 cards at 5/23.50.
I'll put half the stake on each bet.
FA Cup: More tips for the midweek third-round replays!
Recommended bets
Back both teams under 0.5 cards at around 29/130.00Back under 2.5 cards at 5/23.50
Column P/L 2023/24
Staked: 150pts
Returned: 162.73pts
P/L: +12.73pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts