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Two good teams and a top ref for cards
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Kounde can pounce on PSG vulnerability
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Back two-legged Bet Builder at 23/103.30
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Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain
Tuesday 16 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1
There were six cards shown when these two met in an open first leg and a repeat could well be on the cards in Catalonia on Tuesday night.
Leg 1: Over 5.5 cards
Of the eight remaining Champions League sides, Barcelona have received the most cards (27 in nine games) with PSG seeing only four fewer.
With so much at stake - and a potentially desperate need to prevent the other side from scoring as the game wears on - this one could get heated and the choice of referee looks very good from a card punter's perspective.
Romania's Istvan Kovacs is averaging a high 5.61 cards per game in all competitions this season, while if you filter things down to his UEFA club appointments, his eight games have produced 46 cards - an average of 5.75.
And it's not a short-term trend either. 75% of his last 35 UEFA Club games have seen at least four cards and so I'm happy to back over 5.5 cards.
Leg 2: Jules Kounde 1+ shot
Another notable feature of the first leg was PSG's vulnerability from set plays.
Barca ultimately go their winner from one such situation with keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma looking shaky on several occasions in PSG's 3-2 loss.
With this in mind, I'm keen to side with Barca defender Jules Kounde in the shots market.
The Frenchman, once of Bordeaux, provides an aerial threat and has managed a shot in eight of his last 13 matches. He also has the added bonus of being able to push forward from right-back, where he's often played this season.
The two legs combine to produce a Bet Builder which pays around 23/103.30.
More Champions League: Tuesday's cheat sheet!
Recommended bets
Back over 5.5 cards & Jules Kounde 1+ shot @ around 23/103.30Column P/L 2023/24
Staked: 226pts
Returned: 246.86pts
P/L: +20.86pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts