Sunday Football Tips: Back no cards at massive 42/1 at Villa Park

• Ref Taylor has shown no cards in 4 of 21 PL games this season

• Also failed to show a card in 2 of his 3 FA Cup ties in 2023/24

• Back 42/1 Bet Builder - and grab 6/4 about under 3.5 cards

Listen to this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor

Aston Villa v Tottenham
Sunday 9 February, 17:35
Live on BBC1

It worked on Saturday so, as they say, we go again.

I'm talking about the low-cards FA Cup theory.

Cup ties average fewer cards than Premier League games and I don't think that's been taken into account properly by the layers here.

Bet 1: Under 3.5 cards

The referee looks a great pick for punters looking to play the unders lines.

Anthony Taylor is one of the more lenient officials in the Premier League this season, averaging 3.48 cards per game - the league average is 4.5.

He's also got a strong track record for 'going easy' on the cards front in the FA Cup.

His last six such ties - and nine of his last 11 - have all gone under 3.5 cards, something he's also delivered in 12 of his 21 Premier League matches this season.

For that reason, 6/42.50 about under 3.5 here looks big.

I say for that reason, but the two teams also offer us plenty of hope.

Only Brentford have had fewer cards in the Premier League this season than Spurs, while Villa sit in the middle of the fair-play table so are hardly the worst-behaved side.

Bet 2: Both teams under 0.5 cards

However, while I'm very happy to take the 6/42.50, it also looks worth shooting for the stars and backing a no-card game via the Bet Builder tool at a whopping 42/143.00.

Four of Taylor's 21 Premier League appointment this season have landed the no-cards bet, as did two of his three FA Cup ties last term (when he averaged a paltry 13 fouls per game in the competition).

One of those - Luton v Manchester City - saw us claim a big-priced winner in this very market.

Hopefully by backing both teams to have under 0.5 cards we can do it again here.

I'll put a quarter of the stake on the 42/143.00 shot and the rest on the more-likely-to-land 6/42.50 pick.

More Villa v Spurs: Read Kevin Hatchard's in-depth preview!