Bet of the Day

Argentina v Australia: Cards and corners the way forward

Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi and Argentina are big favourites to beat Argentina

Lionel Messi and his Argentina side are huge favourites to beat Australia in their last 16 tie, so in a one-sided betting heat Paul Higham has turned to the cards and corners markets for a value Bet Builder in his Saturday column...

  • Argentina have had 22 corners in three games

  • Argentina's opponents have been booked 11 times

  • Sign up for our World Cup Newsletter here

Argentina recovered from that shock defeat to Saudi Arabia to power into the last 16 by beating Poland, and now they face a euphoric Australia side.

There's still a few question marks about Argentina as I still think you can get at them defensively, something which Poland hardly ever tried as they clung to their qualification spot.

Lionel Messi, though, looks near his best in general play - it wasn't too bad a penalty that he had saved but a couple of ropey finishes in the second half stopped him from making it seven games in a row with a goal.

With Argentina big favourites here and Australia 14/1 for the upset, the great man is naturally odds-on to both score and assist here.

Most of Argentina's creative players are pretty short to do anything in this game, and I think Australia could limit them if they manage to avoid conceding an early goal.

So instead we're looking at the cards and corners markets for our Bet Builder here, as in terms of corners Argentina have had 22 themselves while their opposition has won just five - the same as Australia have managed.

I like the 7/5 on Argentina to get over 7.5 corners and at least match the eight that France managed when they played them in the group.

Also using the France game as a pointer, let's add in Australia to get over 3.5 cards at 7/4 - that's one more than they picked up against the French.

Argentina have seen 11 opponents booked in three games so far though, with just two themselves, and given that the South Americans will dominate the ball and the Aussies forced to defend a lot it's certainly attainable.

That rounds us up to a nice little Bet Builder for what looks a one-sided betting heat.

Recommended bets

COLUMN P/L 2022/23

Staked: 153pts
Returned: 187.09pts
P/L: +34.09pts

New Customers can get £40 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £40 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.