Wolves v Newcastle: Hosts can clip Magpies' wings

• Layable Newcastle have just one away win so far

• Wolves unbeaten in four, including win over Man City

• 18/1 and 11/1 shots have potential too

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Wolves v Newcastle
Saturday 28 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Saturday Night Football features two sides on the up after making a sluggish start to the season.

Newcastle may have suffered the disappointment of losing to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League in midweek but they've still taken four points from their first three games in that competition so shouldn't be too downhearted.

Their domestic form is certainly cause for cheer with 13 points taken from the last 15 available.

Newcastle look too short

Still, my immediate thought when looking at the markets for this match was that they look rather short to win the game at 1.8910/11.

The midweek exertions took their toll more than most on Alexander Isak and Jacob Murphy, both of whom limped off, although at least the Magpies have Callum Wilson to replace the former - the England international is averaging a goal every 66 minutes in this season's Premier League.

But the fact remains that Newcastle's sole away win thus far has come at rock-bottom Sheffield United. They scored eight that day but this is a considerably tougher test.

Wolves are unbeaten in four in the league and are clearly improving under Gary O'Neil, who, it should be remembered, only took the hot seat a few days before the season began.

Recent results suggest his influence is beginning to be felt.

Their last two at Molineux have seen champions Manchester City beaten and in-form Aston Villa held, while last week the men from the Black Country won at Bournemouth.

To me, this looks a good opportunity to lay the visitors - exchange punters can do so at 1.910/11.

Alternatively, Sportsbook users have the option of backing Wolves/Draw in the double-chance market at almost exactly the same price.

First-half goal totals pique 18/1 interest

The other angle I like here is for Wolves to come from behind.

No-one has scored more first-half goals than Newcastle (10) and only Crystal Palace have scored fewer than Wolves (2).

It's therefore not hard to see Newcastle striking first.

However, they've already blown two leads this season and, significantly, one of those occasions came at West Ham, a game which came a few days after a midweek Champions League outing.

With that extra football in their legs (the hosts will be playing their first game in a week), Newcastle could be vulnerable to some fatigue in the second half and Wolves' win at Bournemouth last week was secured from a losing position.

The price I like comes in the HT/FT market where 18.017/1 about Newcastle/Draw looks too big, considering the stats I've just mentioned.

Wolves' duo have Bet Builder potential

Moving on to potential Bet Builders, it's worth noting that Wolves' Joao Gomes is the second-highest fouler in the top flight - only Lucas Paqueta has committed more fouls.

Sadly, the layers are wise to this and 1/31.33 about 2+ fouls - something he's 'only' managed in six of nine games - looks too short.

Instead, my suggestion is to focus on two of Wolves' in-form players, namely Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-chan.

Neto has put a miserable period behind him with a league-high six assists already in 2023/24 and looks back to the sort of form that saw him widely lauded prior to the serious knee injury he sustained in 2021.

Three of those have been assists for Hwang to score - the Korean has netted in six of his 10 appearances in all competitions and also netted on international duty earlier this month.

If Wolves are to get something out of this game, there looks a strong chance one or both of these two will play a starring role.

Hwang is 7/24.50 to score at anytime, while Neto is the same price for an assist.
Back the double in a Bet Builder and you get close to 11/112.00 about something that's happened three times in the opening nine games of the campaign.

For those seeking further additions or options, Newcastle's Kieran Trippier shares the assists lead with Neto and has now assisted in his last four league games. He's 13/53.60 for another here.

And those who like to follow head-to-head trends should definitely note that both teams to score has landed in 15 of the last 16 league meetings between the sides.

Opta fact

In the Premier League this season, Newcastle have scored the most goals (24), have the highest xG (19.9), the highest shot conversion rate (18.9%), had the most big chances (37) and the highest big chance conversion (54.1%).

Opta stats: The best stat-related bets for Saturday's action

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