Wolves v Brighton: Looks like a draw, could be a draw

Nuno Espirito Santo.
Nuno Espirito Santo is missing star man Raul Jimenez.

If two well-matched sides with a history of drawn games between them are up against each other, then a draw is what we might have here, says Jamie Pacheco.

"The draw is a 3.412/5 chance and it’s a good bet. They’re separated by just five points in the league, are in relatively similar form and have drawn three of the last four here so it’s really not hard to make a case for it."

Wolves v Brighton
Sunday May 9, 12:00
Live on BBC One

Wolves plagued with inconsistency

Wolves certainly aren't ending the season as they started it.

A 1-1 draw at WBA was a fair result but they've been a little inconsistent of late. Having secured two good 1-0 wins in a row a few weeks ago they went and lost 4-0 at home to Burnley, so it's not so easy trying to predict what Wolves may do next.

In truth, they haven't been the same since Raul Jimenez suffered that terrible injury. Not only was a big blow from an emotional point of view but it's also virtually impossible to replicate the role he played on the pitch.

Raul Jimenez - Wolves pre season.jpg

You feel they need to get him back fit next season or else get a similar sort of player in because the ones they have at the club already don't quite look up to it.

Decent progress under Potter

Brighton have had a very decent second season under Graham Potter. They finished 15th last season and are currently 14th so there's a decent chance they'll better last year's effort. And if they do, that's not a bad season at all right there.

Finishing 13th or 14th is considerable improvement for a team who had fought so hard just to avoid the drop the previous years.

Perhaps just as crucially, they've played some good football this year and have certainly been more ambitious than in previous recent campaigns.

Stalemate clearly the best bet

Brighton are somewhat surprisingly quite warm favourites at 2.3611/8 and I'm not sure that's right.

Let's not forget that it's Wolves who are five points better off and who are at home here. The head-to-head record can't be the reason for Brighton's favouritism because the last four results read: 0-0, 0-0, 0-2 and 0-0. So yes, Brighton were the only ones to have won in the last four at Molineaux between them but it's clearly the draw that's popped up time and again.

The draw is a 3.412/5 chance and it's a good bet. They're separated by just five points in the league, are in relatively similar form and have drawn three of the last four here so it's really not hard to make a case for it.

It's also 3.412/5 the Wolves win but they're not playing well enough to justify an interest in that price.

'Unders' looks attractive

Piling into a 1.75/7 chance isn't for everyone, but this may be one of the better ones this weekend.

52% of Brighton's away games this season have gone under 2.5 goals and for Wolves home games, it's 59%.

potter brighton.jpg

All of the last four between them have gone 'unders' as we've seen already and away games for the Seagulls have been particularly low-scoring of late: 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1 and 1-0.

So, you can see why that 1.75/7 makes appeal.

Wellbeck well worth a look

Danny Wellbeck has really come to life over the past few weeks. He didn't play much at all until about two-thirds of the way into the season but he's found some form of late. It's now three goals in his last six and in a match where there aren't too many prolific goalscorers on show, you can see why he's 23/10 second-favourite to get a goal.

For Wolves, Adama Traore will probably be their dangerman in attack but this is a man with just the one goal all season. So it's hard to stomach a quote of just 9/2 that he scores and 10/1 that he scores first.

Ben Dunk is admittedly a defender but his four goals this season trump Traore's return, and then some. You're better off having a speculative punt on Duffy at 10/1 to score if you want to play this market.

JAMIE'S PREMIER LEAGUE P/L 20/21

Staked: 41pts
Returned: 53.55pts
P/L +12.55

DAILY OFFER - GET A £5 FREE BET ON MULTIPLES

Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles