West Ham v Wolves: Tense tussle will be short on fun

Moyes facing serious challenge

David Moyes has done much of his best work as a coach of an underdog (not you, Sunderland), whether it was keeping Everton's heads above water and then reaching an FA Cup final, or transforming West Ham from relegation battlers into European semi-finalists.

However, amidst increased expectations after back-to-back European qualifications, Moyes and the Hammers are finding things tough this term.

West Ham have lost five of their seven games in the league so far, and they have scored just three goals from an Infogol Expected Goals figure of 8.4. It appears Moyes doesn't yet trust Italian international striker Gianluca Scamacca, who has played just 200 PL minutes and has generated a personal xG of just 0.11.

There are echoes of the Sebastien Haller signing, where Moyes simply failed to maximise the potential of a striker who went on to excel in the Champions League with Ajax.

Germany defender Thilo Kehrer has really struggled so far after his move from PSG, and former Rennes defender Nayef Aguerd hasn't played at all because of injury. Lyon and Brazil midfielder Lucas Paqueta has played three Premier League games, and is yet to register a goal or an assist.

Aguerd and Ben Johnson are still on the sidelines, but there are no fresh injury concerns from the international break.

Lage in a loop

It seems that every time Wolves play in the Premier League, manager Bruno Lage emerges for the post-match interviews with a weary expression, explaining how his team performed well and didn't get the result they deserved.

There are only so many times you can shrug your shoulders and opine "this is football" before it starts to sound like propaganda, but the underlying data shows that the Portuguese tactician has a point.

Infogol's Expected Goals data suggests that Wolves should be eight places higher in the standings at ninth, while understat.com's Expected Points Table has them at 11th. A lack of ruthlessness in front of goal is an undeniable problem - Wolves have scored just three league goals, and they only averaged a goal a game across the entirety of last season.

Centre-forward Raul Jimenez simply hasn't been the same since a serious head injury, summer signing Sasa Kalajdzic suffered a dreadful knee injury on his debut, and the acquisition of veteran Diego Costa is the result of desperation rather than planning.

However, Wolves are still solid defensively, despite Lage switching to a more attacking formation and trading a back three for a back four. They only leaked 43 goals in the league last term, and this season they have conceded just seven goals, and have one of the best xGA figures outside the top eight. Three of those seven goals were conceded last time out against Manchester City.

Nathan Collins is suspended after an ill-judged aerial challenge against Manchester City, while Jimenez is struggling with a groin injury. 33-year-old Costa is set to make his Wolves debut, and the burly Brazilian (although he did play for Spain) is believed to have impressed Lage and his coaches with his level of fitness.

Little reason to back West Ham

If you look at the underlying data, there isn't much to choose between these sides, and I can't get behind West Ham at evens in the Match Odds market. They have won just once in the league and they have a clutch of players who are either adjusting to the Premier League or are on poor form. Opta tell us that the Hammers are winless in their last six PL home matches, their worst run since 2003.

You could use the Bet Builder feature on the Sportsbook (see Bet Builder offer below) to back Wolves/Draw Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals at 2.53153/100, and if you want to boost it further you can throw in a card for Diego Costa (at time of writing, the market wasn't yet live).

The striker will be pumped up, it'll be a physical battle, and Costa has picked up 96 yellow cards and four reds across his last 354 appearances at club level. That's pretty much a card every three-and-a-half games.

Goals in short supply

I'm backing No here in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.9420/21. The teams have scored three goals apiece, and while they are creating and missing chances, this is likely to be a nervy affair between two sides in the bottom four. It's paid out in five of West Ham's seven league games, and five of Wolves' seven.

Alternatively, you could go for Under 2.5 Goals at 1.768/11, or boost that price to 2.0521/20 by backing Jarrod Bowen to have a first-half shot on the Bet Builder. He has had 15 goal attempts so far, the most by a West Ham player this term.