West Ham v Liverpool: Creaking Reds to score and concede

• Hammers leaking goals regularly

• Profligate Reds desperate for a win

• Mac Allister foul a feature of 7/42.75 Bet Builder

• Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here

West Ham v Liverpool
Saturday 27 April, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports

Hammers drifting towards uncertain summer

There's no doubt that David Moyes has been a success as West Ham manager. He achieved the primary goal, which was to keep the team in the top division, and he has since delivered a consistent presence in continental competition.

Two seasons ago the Hammers reached the Europa League semi-finals, last term they won the Europa Conference League (their first major trophy since 1980) and this season they were beaten in the Europa League quarters by an outstanding Bayer Leverkusen team.

It says a lot about the lack of current clarity at West Ham that we still don't know whether Moyes will carry on as manager beyond this season. Moyes himself spoke of a two-year contract offer, and yet the Hammers are believed to have sounded out Sporting boss Ruben Amorim about taking over. There has also been a sense of disconnect between Moyes and sporting director Tim Steidten.

West Ham are still in with a decent chance of qualifying for Europe next season, but they are playing like a side whose collective mind is elsewhere. Their 5-2 drubbing at Crystal Palace was alarming, with Moyes describing it as an embarrassing and unacceptable display.

West Ham have now won just three of their last 15 Premier League matches, and have lost three of the last five. Considering that Moyes' primary approach is to contain and counter, it's incredible that they have leaked 33 goals in their last 15 top-flight matches.

Jarrod Bowen has been struggling with injury for a while, and only featured against Bayer Leverkusen after pain-killing injections, so he is a major doubt here. Nayef Aguerd and Konstantinos Mavropanis could return to boost the defensive options.

Klopp's big goodbye could be a whimper rather than a bang

Just a few short weeks ago, it seemed as if Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp could sign off his Anfield career with an extraordinary quadruple, adding the Europa League, Premier League and FA Cup to the League Cup the Reds have already won this season. Those hopes are now in tatters.

A clumsy and unnecessary 4-3 loss at Manchester United in the FA Cup has sparked something of a collapse. Liverpool were swept aside 3-1 on aggregate by Atalanta in the Europa League, and in the Premier League they have taken just seven points from their last five games.

Wednesday's 2-0 derby defeat at Everton was perhaps the nadir. Liverpool were bullied from the get-go, conceded two preventable goals and missed a host of first-half chances.

Profligacy in front of goal has been a big issue of late - according to understat.com, Liverpool are the only team in the top five that is underperforming compared to Expected Goals figures (75 goals from an xG of 81.67).

If you look at Liverpool's forwards, Diogo Jota has been plagued by injuries (he's missing again), Darwin Nunez has scored in just one of his last nine competitive games, Mo Salah has scored in just two of his last seven, and Cody Gakpo has netted in just one of his last eight. Even Luis Diaz, who has seemed one of Liverpool's most dangerous forwards recently, has scored in just two of the last ten outings.

Gakpo missed the midweek defeat to attend the birth of his child, so should return here. Jarell Quansah could return to the XI after an incredibly shaky display from Ibrahima Konate at Goodison Park.

Liverpool a touch too short, but value elsewhere

Given how Liverpool's season has unravelled, I can't get on board with backing the Reds to win at 1.574/7, even though they have won 3-1 against the Hammers in the league and 5-1 in the League Cup.

Instead, I'll put together a Bet Builder here at 2.757/4. I'll start with Both Teams To Score - that has landed in both clashes between the sides this term, and ten of West Ham's last 15 league matches.

I'll add in West Ham's keeper (likely to be Lukasz Fabianski) to make four saves or more. Liverpool are in the league's top two when it comes to shots on target, whereas West Ham are in the bottom three when it comes to shots on target allowed. Liverpool have to push for the win, and I expect West Ham to have long spells where they are on the back foot.

Finally I'll back Liverpool midfielder Alexis Mac Allister to commit a foul. The Argentinean is in the league's top eight when it comes to fouls committed, with 46 racked up, and he'll be up against the equally combative Lucas Paqueta and Edson Alvarez in the midfield battle.

If for whatever reason Mac Allister doesn't start, back Paqueta for a foul instead, and that'll give you a price of 2.588/5.

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