West Ham v Arsenal: Hammers can give us a title twist

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Sunday 10 May, 16:30
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Hammers horrified by momentum shift

The beauty of this relegation battle for neutrals is that the narrative can switch so quickly. Before the weekend it looked like West Ham's last-gasp win over Everton had crushed Tottenham's spirit, even though the Lilywhites had managed to dig out a win at Wolves.

However, West Ham's 3-0 reverse at Brentford was followed by a stunning 2-1 win for Spurs at Aston Villa, a turn of events that catapulted Tottenham out of the dropzone at West Ham's expense.

Now the clouds are over the London Stadium, with a ray of light shining down in N17. If West Ham lose to Arsenal on Sunday and Spurs beat Leeds the following night, the gap would be four points, and West Ham have a significantly inferior goal difference.

West Ham's loss at Brentford was only their second in the last seven league matches, and the scoreline wasn't a fair reflection of how the game went. The Hammers had a goal disallowed for a marginal yet correct offside, and hit the frame of the goal three times.

Nuno will hope that the team's recent home form can be continued. West Ham have put together a six-match unbeaten run at home in the top division, racking up four wins and two draws. That sequence includes draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. Indeed, West Ham have only lost one of the last eight at home in the league, and that was a very unfortunate defeat against Nottingham Forest.

As regards team news, West Ham have no fresh injury concerns.

Gunners shouldn't be ashamed of their style

As he celebrated leading Arsenal to their first Champions League final for 20 years, I doubt Gunners' boss Mikel Arteta stopped to worry about what people think of his team's style of play. The North London giants edged out Atletico Madrid 1-0 at the Emirates to secure a 2-1 aggregate success, and while they aren't football darlings like PSG, they are an incredibly effective outfit.

Arsenal have also built a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League thanks to home wins against Newcastle and Fulham, with both victories achieved without the concession of a single goal. Manchester City's chaotic slip-up at Everton on Monday - a 3-3 draw that defence-conscious Arsenal wouldn't be seen dead in - has handed the initiative to Arteta's men.

And yet the job is far from done at home or abroad. Burnley are down and Crystal Palace will be totally distracted by the Conference League final, but this trip to West Ham could be the toughest domestic test remaining, with the Hammers desperate for a win.

In the Champions League final, Arsenal must overcome a PSG team that beat them in the semi-finals last term, and that seems to be peaking at the right time. To win that trophy, Arsenal will have to be rock-solid defensively, accept that they will have a low amount of possession and look to threaten with set plays.

Injuries will be a key factor, as they were for Arsenal last term. Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino are still out. Viktor Gyokeres was tireless in attack for Arsenal against Atletico Madrid, and will be keen to retain the centre-forward spot here.

Arsenal odds too short to take big step

Arsenal are trading at 1.618/13 to win this, and I'm not sure that gives enough respect to West Ham's improvement under Nuno or their recent home form. The Gunners have won just one of their last six competitive matches that weren't at the Emirates, and a bruising Champions League semi-final will have taken its toll.

At time of writing we can't know what the state of the title race will be, but if Manchester City slip up again at home to Brentford, this is a game Arsenal might not need to win.

The London Stadium is not a ground the West Ham fans love, but if ever there was a moment to create an atmosphere, this is it. I'll lay Arsenal on the Betfair Exchange at 1.618/13. For those who prefer to bet on the Betfair Sportsbook you can back West Ham and the draw on the double chance market at 13/102.30.

Chaotic Diouf to be caught out

West Ham's rampaging left-back El-Hadji Malick Diouf is something of a force of nature. He gallops forward, and is an excellent crosser of the ball. On Sunday however, he'll have his hands full dealing with either Bukayo Saka or Noni Madueke. In the reverse fixture, Diouf committed three fouls, and he has committed multiple fouls in six of his 27 Premier League starts this term.

Saka in particular is a master at drawing fouls, and has been fouled at least twice in 13 of his last 21 Premier League starts. In the reverse fixture he was fouled three times.

I'll back Diouf to commit two fouls here at 11/102.11.

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