Leeds v Man Utd: Back stalemate and 8/1 Baleba-based Bet Builder in fiery Elland Road showdown

Hosts still impressed despite suffering first defeat

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Sunday 18 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Leeds were one of just five unbeaten teams in the Premier League when they headed to Arsenal last Saturday lunchtime. And when James Justin gave them a not underserved 55th-minute lead, the visitors were set to go above the Gunners in the table on goal difference.

Arsenal showed why they're champions when fighting back to win 2-1 but Leeds emerged from the game with plenty of credit. They looked extremely well organised and the calendar table which shows them in seventh place in points won in 2026 seems a fair reflection.

Leeds have had little to cheer against their fierce Roses rivals down the years but they took four points off Man Utd last year, drawing the Elland Road clash 1-1 and winning 2-1 at Old Trafford - their first Premier League win over the Red Devils since 2002.

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Red Devils off to miserable start

It was already looking like an unconvincing start to the season for Man Utd and then it got worse. They were held 1-1 - and frankly outplayed for large parts - by rock-bottom Tottenham, who equalised when down to 10 men before then going on to suffer a 2-0 away defeat to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.

The negative mood around the club deepened when defender Lisandro Martinez criticised the Man Utd hierarchy in his post-match press conference before eventually offering an apology a couple of days later that didn't fool anyone.

The visitors ended last weekend in 13th place with just six points from six games. In all competitions, they're winless in five after two draws and three defeats.

Leeds v Man Utd Tip 1 - Door wide open but Draw best

Here's a stat ahead of Sunday's showdown. For the first time in Premier League history, Leeds are favourites to beat Manchester United in a Premier League fixture.

Leeds are 13/102.30 to justify that new status, while Manchester United are 2/13.00.

It's easy to argue the case for Leeds based on performances this season but taking those shorts odds feels like a trap.

One fact that creates doubt is that since beating Chelsea 3-0 in August 2022 in a Sunday 2pm fixture, Leeds have gone 20 Premier League matches without a win in games kicking off before 3pm. They've lost 13 of those and it's the longest ever such run by a side in Premier League history.

Secondly, Man Utd haven't lost to Leeds in a top-flight fixture at Elland Road for 24 years. After the unrest in midweek, maybe this is a good fixture for Michael Carrick's men. Minds will be focused and they were in similarly poor form ahead of the trip to Elland Road last year having won just one of their previous four.

Man Utd emerged with a 1-1 draw on that occasion and, although it proved the end for Ruben Amorim who was sacked in the aftermath, there was frustration among Leeds fans that they hadn't finished his reign by inflicting a defeat.

I'm split between a Leeds win and a Draw but given the discrepancy in prices - 13/102.30 (win) v 13/53.60 (draw) - the latter has to be the choice.

Leeds v Man Utd Tip 2 - Try Baleba and Bogle Bet Builder

Carlos Baleba has been brought in to give some physicality to Man Utd's rather lightweight midfield. And he should be kept busy as the middle of the park is where Leeds have plenty of strength.

Add in a baying crowd along with Carrick wanting a response to recent poor results and a Baleba card appeals.

In the 12 away matches he played for Brighton between September and February last season, the Cameroon international picked up seven yellows so his combative nature often results in cards. It's 9/52.80 for one here.

For a Bet Builder, I'll add in a Jayden Bogle shot on target.

The Leeds man gets forward plenty from right wing-back, so much so that he even blocked a shot from his own player in the Arsenal box last weekend.

Bogle has had five shots on target in his six Premier League games so far and is value at 5/23.50 to test the goalkeeper again.

The Baleba and Bogle Bet Builder doesn't just alliterate nicely, it pays 8/1.

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