Aston Villa v Newcastle: Back Jackson and Villa to thrive against fragile Magpies

Jaissle still wrestling with inconsistency

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Saturday 17 October, 17:30
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There have been a lot of positives in the early weeks of Matthias Jaissle's reign at Newcastle, but back-to-back 4-1 away defeats at Leeds United and Coventry have dulled any sense of enthusiasm. The Magpies do have on average the youngest team in the division, but there was enough experience in the team on Monday night to avoid the collapse that took place against Frank Lampard's Sky Blues.

Like Saturday's opponents Aston Villa, Newcastle lost key players in the summer, and both clubs are often held up as examples of why the current financial rules that govern transfer spending are poorly written and too restrictive. Watching key midfielder Sandro Tonali move sideways to Tottenham was a gut punch for Magpies fans, although you can't really blame Anthony Gordon for wanting to join the all-star cast at Barcelona.

Jaissle is used to developing young talent, and he did it effectively as a coach at Liefering and Salzburg. However, that process takes time, and this very much feels like a work in progress. Summer signing Matias Fernandez-Pardo is a case in point - the Belgian has shown flashes of talent since arriving from Lille, but he's clearly taking a while to get used to the rough-and-tumble of the Premier League.

Joelinton made his first appearance of the season at Coventry on Monday, and looked ragged, making a key error for the killer third goal. The burly Brazilian is pushing for his first start of the campaign, while Bazoumana Toure is a doubt after injuring his knee. Will Osula and Dan Burn also made comebacks on Monday, but it's not clear if either is fit enough to start.

New look Villa flexed their muscles in midweek rout

Villa boss Unai Emery effectively has the job of trying to change the tyres on a moving car this season. He lost a slew of key players in the summer, and is trying to bed in a set of new players while still remaining competitive. The Premier League season has been hitherto underwhelming, with just one win in six matches and a frustrating 2-2 draw against Brentford last time out.

However, Villa have been outstanding in the Champions League. They won 3-2 at Club Brugge on Matchday One (a result that looks even better when you bear in mind Brugge won at Inter this week) and then demolished Fenerbahce 6-0. Nicolas Jackson scored a brace, while Johan Manzambi gave another indication that he is settling in nicely after his summer move from Freiburg.

Jackson is a fascinating player. Unfairly maligned at Chelsea, he then played a perfect understudy role as he won a league and cup double with Bayern. The Senegalese international was never going to dislodge Harry Kane from the Bayern XI, but he allowed the England captain to get a much-needed rest now and then. Jackson has worked effectively with Unai Emery before at Villarreal, and has made a promising start to life at Villa Park.

Villa could welcome teenage striker Brian Madjo back after injury, while left-backs Matteo Ruggeri and Ian Maatsen are out. Youngster George Hemmings is battling to be fit after a knee problem, while experienced German midfielder Leon Goretzka is pushing for a first start.

Newcastle v Villa Tip 1 - Manzambi in the thick of things

Johan Manzambi was the most fouled player in the Bundesliga last season when he was wearing the colours of Freiburg, and his excellent ball-carrying ability draws plenty of contact. He has been fouled at least twice in his last seven games for club and country.

I'll combine Manzambi to be fouled twice with Villa to pick up at least a point here using the Double Chance market. For all their early struggles in the league, Villa look to have steadied the ship, and they have only lost one of their last seven competitive matches. Away from home, Emery's men haven't lost since the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

That double on the Bet Builder pays out at 5/42.25.

Newcastle v Aston Villa Tip 2 - Back Jackson to strike

Newcastle are a front-foot pressing side under Jaissle, and that can leave a fair bit of space in behind their defensive line. That's the kind of set-up that Nicolas Jackson thrives against, and I can see the Senegal international having a field day here against a defence that has already leaked 13 Premier League goals.

Jackson has scored five goals already in all competitions, and he has found the net in his last three appearances. I'll back him to score again here at 8/52.60 on the Sportsbook.

Backing all three of my selections in a Bet Builder pays out at around 10/34.33.

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