Sunday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets include a 30/1 play in north London

• Have Aston Villa turned a corner? 

• Back a brace at a big price in North London

• Liverpool worth backing against Man Utd

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Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports 

Aston Villa look a big price for their trip to North London on Sunday. 

After a rocky start to the campaign, Unai Emery's side appear to have turned a corner. In all competitions, they went six games without a win (D3 L3) but headed into the international break with four wins on the spin. 

Across their winless streak, they were shipping 1.49 xGA a game and averaging 0.77 xG. In their last four, their xG per game average has increased and their xGA has decreased, so they have improved at both ends of the pitch. 

Sunday's opponents Tottenham are overachieving in terms of their underlying data. Spurs have outscored their xG (+5.5) and are outperforming their xGA (-3.8). In the league, they have only won the xG battle in two games (West Ham, Burnley) yet have won four times. 

Al of which suggest they might be fortunate to have taken 14 points. 

Backing Villa at 2.67167/100 +0.0 on the Asian handicap appeals as we get the added bit of security of money back if the game ends all square. Despite Spurs' good fortune, they have only lost once in the league and drawn two of their last three. 

Donyell Malen's price of 7/24.50 to score anytime also appeals. 

The Dutchman netted a brace in Villa's last outing before the international break and scored in his only start for the Netherlands. 

With a career goals per 90 average of 0.63, I also think the brace is worth a punt at 30/131.00. It is the best price in the industry and Malen has netted five top flight goals in just 539 minutes of action including that recent brace.

Lets hope lightning strikes twice.

Liverpool vs Manchester United

Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports 

Ruben Amorim's stint at Old Trafford has followed the trend set by many of his managerial forefathers. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Erik ten Hag and even Ralf Rangnick - to an extent - all had the knack of picking up points in the big games. 

Last season, Amorim's United won at the Etihad, drew at Anfield, beat Arsenal on penalties in the FA Cup and held the Gunners to a 1-1 draw at home. 

It's like something happens to the Red Devils in these games, they really lean into the underdog narrative, embrace the siege mentality and can be quite lethal on the counter attack. 

You can see where I am heading with this. I kind of want to get the visitors on side at Anfield if the price suits. Unfortunately, it does not. 

United went off 4/15.00 in the home draw against Arsenal last season, 17/45.25 in the FA Cup clash, 9/25.50 at the Etihad and a touch over 7/18.00 in the draw at Anfield. 

So, there should be some juice in Liverpool's price. The Reds are trading at 1.664/6 on the Exchange to win on Sunday which is a big increase on recent meetings at Anfield where they have gone off 1.351/3 and 1.341/3 per OddsPortal. 

The last two meetings between these sides in Liverpool have ended all square and Arne Slot's side come into this clash off the back of three defeats on the spin. 

All of those have come on the road though. On their own patch, the Reds boast a 100% record and have scored multiple goals in all bar one of those five games. 

Considering there is enough juice in the hosts price to win, I think they are worth getting onside here by combining them to win and both teams to score at 17/102.70. 

It is a significant boost on the 1x2 price and five of the Reds seven wins this season have seen both teams net. 

United have only failed to score in two games this season and top the charts for xG (14.1) so will certainly pose a threat. 

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