Southampton v Newcastle: Time to fly with Miggy the Magpie

• Almiron has scored in 5 of his last 6 games
• Ward-Prowse can land passes bet again
• Bet Builder suggestions for Southampton v Newcastle

Expectations are high at Newcastle these days but did even their own fans really think they'd be sitting fourth a third of the way into the season?

It's just one defeat so far for Eddie Howe's side - and that deep into added time at Anfield - but while they are tough to beat there's also significant attacking threat being carried as the manager moulds his team using the ethos which won him earlier admirers at Bournemouth.

Magpies flying high

With five wins from their last six, the Magpies really are flying at the moment, with Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron in particular producing the goods in those forward areas.

Wilson appears to be firing himself towards the England World Cup squad having returned to full fitness. Having scored three times in his last two games, he now has six for the season (from nine starts).

As for Almiron, confidence is clearly flowing through the Paraguayan right now - he's been a sight to behold cutting in from the right and letting shots fly with his excellent left foot.

That's resulted in six goals in his last six games and while Howe was quick to point out on Friday that the run won't last forever, he's sure to be trying his luck again in this game given the way he's playing.

Newcastle, who lose Joelinton to suspension for this contest, have won at Fulham (4-1) and Spurs (2-1) during their recent fine run but don't expect them to have things easy at St Mary's, where they have won on two of their last three visits.

Saints' struggling but...

Having taken just six points on home soil this season, Saints may have the worst home record in the league but they've still only lost two of six.

They've beaten Chelsea and drawn with leaders Arsenal here, continuing a strong record against the better sides - as I pointed out in a recent preview, in their home games against the eventual top nine last season, they lost only two.

Both Romeo Lavia and German international defender Armel Bella-Kotchap are fit again for the hosts, although they remain without Kyle Walker-Peters.

Draw best option?

That record against the top teams is enough to put me off backing the in-form visitors to win the game at odds-on. I just don't see any great value in that 1.9620/21 price.

But with just one win in eight, it's also hard to back the Saints at 4.131/10 so perhaps the draw at 3.8514/5 is best option in the match betting market.

I was tempted to go under 2.5 goals on the goal line at 1.981/1 - that's landed in Southampton's last four games and seven of their last 10, this despite the fact they've kept just one clean sheet in their last 19 league games.

And therein lies the worry.

You'd expect Newcastle to score and there's clearly a chance that they manage to do so more than once given they've smashed 16 in their last six games.

Back Almiron to score again

Instead, it's Almiron who is crying out to be backed given his current form.

He looks big at 4.47/2 to score in what would be a sixth game in seven.

An alterative way to side with Almiron is in the shots markets - several of his recent goals have been strikes from distance and you can get 2/1 with the Sportsbook that he has a shot on target from outside the box.

3+ shots at 6/5 also makes appeal given he's landed this in eight of 12 games this season, hitting no fewer than six shots at Tottenham and four at Fulham

For those using the Bet Builder tool, it's also worth noting the Fabian Schar is one of the top defenders for shots in the league.

Usually the right-sided player in a back three, Schar is the one who strides forward and he likes to try his luck from distance, as well as being a set-piece threat.

He's 8/5 for 2+ shots here, something he's managed in six of 12 starts this season.

Pass master

Another odds-against shot with potential comes in the passes markets.

James Ward-Prowse has had 50+ passes in six of his last eight games but he's 11/10 for a repeat.

OK, Southampton are towards the bottom of the list when it comes to possession but I'd expect them to have more than their average of 44% here against a side not known for its pressing.

That should only aid Ward-Prowse extend that statistic and it's worth noting the England international is yet to be substituted this season.

Finally, in the card markets, keep an eye on Lyanco, a natural centre-half who is filling in for Walker-Peters at right-back.

He's been carded in all three starts for his club this season and could face star dribbler Allan Saint-Maximin here.

While I'm expecting ASM to stay on the bench - after all, Newcastle won 4-0 against Aston Villa last week - It will certainly be worth keeping an eye on the team news.

And even if Saint-Maximin doesn't start, there's clear potential for a late Lyanco booking if the Frenchman makes a late appearance against a jaded Saints defender, so worth keeping an eye on the in-play betting.

Opta fact

Miguel Almiron has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games, netting at least once in each of his last three. Overall, seven different players have scored in four consecutive appearances for Newcastle in the competition, with Papiss Demba Cisse the only non-Englishman to do so (6 in March/April 2012).

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