Southampton v Burnley: Wins to be like buses for the Saints

Paul Robinson
22 October 2021
3:00 min read

Ralph Hasenhüttl will be hoping his team can build on last week's win

Southampton vs Burnley
Sat 23 Oct, 15:00

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It might not be the most glamourous fixture of the weekend, but Paul Robinson believes that he has found a good bet for Burnley's visit to Southampton.

It’s fair to say that Burnley have had a tough run of away games this year – Liverpool, Everton, Leicester and Man City – but they took just the one point from them, and they couldn’t even beat Norwich at Turf Moor.

Back Southampton @ 2.0421/20

Saints have the monkey off their back

Ralph Hasenhüttl will have breathed a huge sigh of relief last Saturday as his Saints team finally won in the Premier League this season, having gone seven without a victory prior (nine if you include the end of the previous campaign).

They beat Leeds 1-0 at St Mary's, thanks to a goal from Armando Broja, and they managed to do it without the likes of James Ward-Prowse and Che Adams.

The latter of those two will be back in contention for the visit of Burnley, having returned to training this week, but the former remains suspended, and Jack Stephens and Will Smallbone are still injured.

Clarets remain winless

Unfortunately for Sean Dyche, his Burnley team couldn't match Southampton's victory last week, and they remain one of three clubs that are yet to win this season.

Putting the ball in the net has been the main issue for the Clarets, which probably comes as no surprise.

Last year they were the third lowest scorers with just 33 goals, and so far this term it's five in eight.

Dyche has tried to put a positive spin on it by pointing out that his side have been the sixth-highest operators in terms of quality chances created, but according to the xG, they are 15th with 1.09 expected goals per game. Perhaps even more concerning, their xGA (expected goals against) is 1.62 - the fifth highest.

As far as the team news goes, Ben Mee, Matej Vydra and Charlie Taylor are in a race to be fit, but Dale Stephens remains out.

Hosts the value at above evens

For those who read my weekly Premier League Treble, you will know that I was quite negative about Southampton's chances against Leeds last week - I tipped the away win - but at 2.0421/20 on the Exchange, they look like a good bet on Saturday.

It's fair to say that Burnley have had a tough run of away games this year - Liverpool, Everton, Leicester and Man City - but they took just the one point from them, and they couldn't even beat Norwich at Turf Moor.

Getting that victory over Leeds will have given the Saints no end of confidence, and their record at St Mary's hasn't been terrible. They drew with Man United and West Ham, but admittedly they were poor in the 1-0 defeat to Wolves.

Southampton

Burnley

Southampton 2 2 Leeds United
Tottenham Hotspur 4 1 Southampton
Leicester City 4 1 Southampton
Southampton 1 2 Liverpool
Brentford 3 0 Southampton
Southampton 1 2 Crystal Palace

Watford 1 0 Burnley
Burnley 1 1 Luton Town
Huddersfield Town 0 1 Burnley
Burnley 1 2 Newcastle United
Aston Villa 1 1 Burnley
Tottenham Hotspur 1 0 Burnley

Southampton vs Burnley Saturday 23 October, 15:00

Full stats

The visitors are 4.1 to pick up their first three points of the season, but I would be wanting bigger odds than that to be interested, and even the draw at 3.55 doesn't appeal. A home win is definitely the way to go, at the prices.

Stats leaning towards a low-scoring affair

There is harder decision to make when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 Goals. Unders is the marginal favourite at 1.875/6, with Overs available to back at 2.1211/10.

All four of Southampton's home fixtures have ended with two goals or fewer, in fact, three of them have seen Under 1.5 backers collect.

The stats are a bit more mixed when it comes to Burnley away games, as two of their four have gone Under 2.5 - a pair of 2-0 defeats - but the other two have actually ended with the ball in the net on four occasions.

Overall I think that the odds are about right for this match, and I would much rather have my money on a home win than dabble in the goal markets.

Bet Builder

In my preview of Watford v Liverpool last week, not only did the recommended bets win, I also landed a 16/1 Bet Builder (not counted in the P&L).

For this game I am going with a treble that comes to a shade over 7/1 on the Sportsbook. The first pick is a Southampton win, which I have already outlined the case for. Second is Over 10.5 Corners, as despite their respective struggles, they are joint seventh on corners taken this year, with 44 apiece.

The final pick is Over 30 Booking Points, as Burnley are third when it comes to cards this season, and the Saints are only two cards behind.

Key Opta Stat

No team in the top four tiers of English league football is on a longer current winless run than Burnley (11 - D3 L8), with the Clarets failing to score on seven occasions in that run.

2021/22 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 22pts
Returned: 26.82pts
P/L: +4.82pts

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