Watford v Liverpool: Rampant Reds to spoil Ranieri's welcome party

Liverpool forward - Sadio Mane
Sadio Mane is back in form this season and he has netted four times in the Premier League
  • Watford vs Liverpool
  • Sat 16 Oct, 13:30

The Saturday lunchtime game sees Liverpool travel south to Watford, and Paul Robinson is expecting the goals to keep on flowing.

It’s hard to argue against those odds, as I have already mentioned that Liverpool have scored three goals themselves in all three of their away games.

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.68/5

Impossible dream to impossible job

Watford's start of seven points from seven outings back in the top flight obviously wasn't good enough for the owners as they sacked manager, Xisco, following their 1-0 defeat at Leeds.

Over the international break they have appointed Claudio Ranieri as manager, with the Hornets being the fifth club he has managed since he departed Leicester City.

He couldn't have asked for a much tougher start, as not only do Watford have to take on Liverpool this weekend, their next seven fixtures after that are against Everton, Southampton, Arsenal, Man United, Leicester, Chelsea and Man City.

It will be interesting to see what changes he makes to the team in the short-term, but I wouldn't imagine that it will be anything too drastic.

Reds well poised after seven games

Liverpool were involved in the best match of the season to date - or at least the best half anyway - prior to the international break. Their 2-2 draw with Man City was pulsating, but after leading twice, the Reds would have been disappointed with a point.

They head to Vicarage Road sitting second in the table - one point behind Chelsea and one ahead of Man City. It's the first game of a big week for the Reds, as after this, it's Atletico Madrid on Tuesday and Manchester United on the following Sunday.

Liverpool's chances of winning the Premier League

The good news for Jurgen Klopp is that Trent Alexander-Arnold should be fit again, but Thiago hasn't returned to full training, so he surely won't feature. Alisson and Fabinho face a race against time to be back in England to feature against the Hornets, as they are involved in South American World Cup Qualifying until the early hours of Friday morning.

No fears for Klopp's men

If you are a believer in 'new manager bounce' then the 9.617/2 for a home win will certainly interest you. Normally though, a team that have made a managerial change have been on a bad run and due a change of luck - not something that is really true in this case.

The strong favourite in the Match Odds market is a Liverpool win, of course, and it's trading at around the 1.392/5 mark on the Betfair Exchange. The draw is 5.69/2.

The hosts beat Aston Villa at home on the opening day of the season, but since then it's been a 2-0 defeat to Wolves, and a 1-1 draw with Newcastle. That is hardly inspiring form, and Liverpool have scored three times in each of their three away matches this term.

Watford

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Liverpool

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Watford vs Liverpool Saturday 16 October, 13:30

Full stats

Clearly a recommended bet on an away win is not the way to go, given the short odds, but I do like the look of a Correct Score.

'Any Other Away Win' can be backed at 5.14/1, which is basically Liverpool to win and for them to score at least four goals. It is far from a certainty, but at 4/1, it's definitely worth a small investment given how well the likes of Mo Salah and Sadio Mane have started the campaign.

Watford defence to be reeling

Goals shouldn't be in short supply at Vicarage Road on Saturday lunchtime, but that is reflected in the price of Over 2.5 at 1.645/8. Unders is 2.526/4.

It's hard to argue against those odds, as I have already mentioned that Liverpool have scored three goals themselves in all three of their away games.

Ranieri will of course try and stifle the 2020 Premier League title winners, but the side he has taken over are yet to keep a clean sheet since their promotion back to the top flight, and I can't see that changing this weekend.

Over 3.5 Goals is my play though, which enables us to get odds of 2.68/5, for just one extra goal.

Bet Builder

I have enjoyed some success with Bet Builders of late, and my selections on the Sportsbook for this game are as follows.

Liverpool to Win, Over 3.5 Goals, Salah to Score any time, Mane to have 2+ Shots on Target and Liverpool -4 Corners adds up to a shade over 16/1, and while it might sound like a lot of selections, the stats do back them up.

The Reds lead the way in corners won this year with 66, while Watford are only 18th in the rankings, with 29.

Mane has re-captured his form this term, and he already has nine shots on target to his name, and Salah tops the goalscoring charts with half a dozen goals.

2021/22 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 20pts
Returned: 19.12pts
P/L: -0.88pts

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