Saturday Premier League Tips: Back Alcaraz to shoot down Man Utd and goals at Craven Cottage and St Mary's

• David Moyes' Everton to go on the offensive against Man U

• Fulham and Crystal Palace to serve up goals

• Southampton to carry on sinking at St Mary's

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Everton v Man Utd (Saturday, 12:30)

Everton's resurgence under David Moyes continues. When he took over they had only won three of 19 games all season and sat just one point clear of the relegation zone. Six games later, with four wins, a draw and just a single defeat, they are up to 14th, 13 points clear of the drop and even above this weekend's opponents Manchester United.

The key to Everton's success right now is their increase in attacking effectiveness. Under Sean Dyche they only scored 15 goals (0.79 per-game), as a result of only managing 63 shots-on-target (3.32 per-game), having only created 18.33 xG (0.96 per-game).

Under Moyes, they've scored 12 goals (2.0 per-game), had 26 shots-on-target (4.33 per-game) and created 9.70 xG (1.62 per-game). They've picked up the joint second most points and the fourth most expected points since his re-appointment to prove they deserve everything they've got so far.

If feels like groundhog day for United and Ruben Amorim after yet another defeat to make it eight in 14 league games since he arrived. Last weekend, they conceded 22 shots at Tottenham, including seven on target. And that's the area I want to focus on given the increase in Everton's attacking output since Moyes arrived.

The player I like to take advantage of United's weakesses is new signing Carlos Alcaraz. In his first start for his new club away to Crystal Palace last weekend, he managed five shots with three going on-target culminating in a goal. We can back him to find the target here at 5/61.84. Over the course of 109 appearances across the top divisions in Argentina, England, Italy and Brazil, he's averaging 1.0 shots-on-target per-90 minutes.

Fulham v Crystal Palace (Saturday, 15:00)

If it wasn't for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest's fantastic seasons, we would all surely be talking about how well Fulham are doing. They sit eighth, just five points off fifth and the likely extra Champions League place, having beaten Forest last weekend.

Having made the Europa League final in 2010, could we see something similar in the Champions League in 2026? Jesting aside, they rank fourth for expected points this season, higher than both Man City and Chelsea, which really tells you how well they've been playing.

Opponents Crystal Palace suffered a setback last weekend as I suggested they might in my match preview, with a 2-1 defeat at home to Everton. However, it was only their third defeat in 14 games and, after a slow start, they are also having a decent season. The Eagles have collected the eighth most points since the end of October, just one fewer than Fulham, yet more expected points than them in that sample.

So with both sides playing well I'm forecasting both can contribute to the scoreline here and thus a pro-goals bet is the way to go. Fulham themselves have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches contributing to eight of their last 12 matches going over 2.5 goals and Craven Cottage has been a great place for three plus goals backers this season with nine of their 13 home games paying out.

I'm therefore envisaging it will be difficult for Palace keep a clean sheet but they can definitely trouble the Cottagers having scored two or more goals in eight of their last 16 games. The Premier League is averaging 3.02 goals per-game this season yet we are still getting opportunities like here where over/under 2.5 is priced up as a 50-50 shot.

Southampton v Brighton (Saturday, 15:00)

Are Southampton the worst Premier League team ever? If the answer is no, they're having a good go at trying to be! They've lost 20 of 25 games, winning just twice. With just nine points, they are still two shy of Derby's record low points total of 11 set in 2007/08.

New boss Ivan Juric has been in charge for eight matches in which they've suffered seven losses. The defence is still a huge issue under Juric with Saints conceding at least three goals in five of their last six matches.

There were mutterings of pressure on new Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler a few weeks ago. But after back-to-back wins over Chelsea in league and cup, he's reminded everyone of his ability and the Seagulls are just six points off fifth and a probable Champions League place.

Since Hürzeler's arrival, I've been keen to try and side with goals in their games and I'm happy to do so again here. It feels like the good old days under Roberto de Zerbi when Brighton were capable of clearing the line by themselves at both ends of the pitch. Fourteen of their last 21 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (67%) and away from home it's an even more impressive strike rate of nine of 13 matches.

Southampton's last seven have all seen three or more goals and at St. Mary's that record reads eight of 12 matches. Backing over 2.75 goals means at least half our bet will win if there's three goals.

Now read more Saturday Premier League tips from Stephen Tudor!