Betfair SuperBoost
Last week our Mitoma to be fouled SuperBoost landed within 16 minutes, and we are heading back to the foul markets once again for Brighton's trip to the Emirates.
Kai Havertz has either committed (6) or won (4) 10 fouls in the first two Premier League games this season, the fourth highest of any player so far.
Havertz has won 11 fouls in his last seven Premier League games - and at least one in six of those and has committed 14 across his last nine.
Last season, he averaged 1.7 fouls committed per 90 minutes played in the top-flight, and averaged 1.5 fouls won per 90.
Betfair have SuperBoosted Kai Havertz to both to commit 1 or more fouls and to be fouled 1 or more times to 1/12.00, that's up from 4/91.44!
Back Kai Havertz to commit 1 or more fouls & to be fouled 1 or more times
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Arsenal v Brighton (Sat, 12:30)
It's not been a bad start for new Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler. Two wins out of two, five goals scored plus another four in the League Cup. This week they've further strengthened the squad with the arrivals of Matt O'Riley and Ferdi Kadıoğlu taking their summer investment to almost £200M in what is arguably their best ever squad in their history. Even Evan Ferguson was back in the squad during the midweek cup game.
They created over two expected goals v Man Utd, including two big chances, and given Hurzeler's style of play, I think they can trouble Arsenal at times.
The Gunners meanwhile have started just as well with two wins, and have now won their last eight Premier League matches, scoring at least two goals in seven of those. However, at home they have been susceptible, failing to keep a clean sheet in 27 of their last 39 home games (69%) since the beginning of the 2022/23 season when they became genuine title challengers. As a result, both teams to score is an attractive bet in my opinion.
Given the increase in goals since the beginning of last season, it's normally very difficult to get a decent price on this market and this match has the highest odds for this market across matchday three.
Nottingham Forest v Wolves (Sat, 15:00)
Things are looking bleak for Wolves right now starting the new season with back-to-back defeats, conceding eight goals. They've now lost 10 of their last 14 Premier League matches, whilst conceding at least two goals in eight of their last 10. Away from home it looks even worse, having shipped two or more goals in 11 of their last 15 (73%).
Take out the 'big three' in Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool, Nottingham Forest have scored two or more goals in seven of their nine home games under Nuno Espírito Santo, including the 2-2 draw with Wolves in April at the City Ground where they had 18 shots, with nine on target. Forest have only scored two goals in their two games so far but they've generated the fifth highest expected goals in the league so should be backed to grab a couple here.
Back Nottingham Forest Over 1.5 Goals
Everton v Bournemouth (Sat, 15:00)
Crushing defeats to begin the season for Everton with defensive injuries also taking it's toll with only 14 senior players available to choose from last weekend. Unsurprisingly they were poor at the back, allowing Tottenham to create 2.43 expected goals including six big chances.
However, despite still not scoring this season, they did manage 10 shots with all 10 coming inside Spurs' penalty area. Seven of those efforts were generated from set-pieces. Everton scored the second most goals from set-pieces last season to showcase their prowess from dead balls so they are still offering a threat attacking wise.
Two 1-1 draws to start for Bournemouth but the expected goals totals in both games was 3.15 and 4.43 so some bad luck/finishing played it's part. New £40M club record signing Evanilson, brought in to replace 19-goal Dominic Solanke, was the biggest culprit against Newcastle missing a great chance at the back post.
Last season Bournemouth had the joint second most matches finish over 2.5 goals with 27 of their 38 fixtures seeing three or more goals (71%). Away from home that % increased 79% (15 of 19 games). With Over 2.5 goals in this match the biggest price across the Premier League this weekend, it looks backing with Everton's defence and Bournemouth being involved.