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Premier League odds and state of play
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Liverpool odds-on for top four finish
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Spurs and United shorter than Newcastle
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Chelsea outsiders for Champions League spot
Of the three Premier League clubs that are odds-on to finish in the top four this season, one is the champions Manchester City 1.021/50 and the other is the leaders Arsenal 1.141/7.
That makes sense as Arsenal have only dropped five points this season and City have won the title in four of the last five seasons. Both sides deserve to be a shoo-in for the Champions League places.
So who else is odds-on for the top four? It's not third-placed Newcastle 2.68/5 and it's not fourth-placed Tottenham 2.111/10. It's not even Manchester United 2.486/4 in fifth.
No, the other team that bettors think more likely than not to finish in the top four is Liverpool 1.768/11 even though they're currently sixth in the table.
Bettors say Reds can overtake rivals
Jurgen Klopp's team are seven points behind Spurs, albeit with a game in hand, and have lost four times already.
That's two more defeats than they suffered in the entiretly of last season's campaign when City pipped them to the title by a point.
The Reds have been unlucky with injuries and are perhaps feeling the effects of a 2021/22 campaign that saw them reach the final of every cup competition as well as going agonisingly close in the league.
In 2020/21, the season after they won the title, they struggled for the first half of the season and rallied late on to finish in the top four. Bettors expect something similar this time.
Egypt's absence from the World Cup should mean Mo Salah is fresh for the restart.
Liverpool are also believed to be in with a shout of signing Jude Bellingham, who was arguably England's best player in Qatar, and that would boost their midfield.
Before then they face a tricky trip to Aston Villa on Boxing Day.
Newcastle, Spurs and United can also compete
Newcastle have been the surprise package of the season so far, sitting third, have the joint-best defensive record after losing just once.
The Magpies have a serious shot at finishing top four on the basis of their form so far.
But bettors prefer Spurs and United, perhaps because of their deeper squads and a little big club bias.
Spurs have looked brilliant and resolute at times under Antonio Conte this season but they have also struggled, in games against United and Arsenal in particular.
Erik ten Hag has made a solid start at Old Trafford and the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo should help to bolster his squad's cohesiveness. United are a work in progress but qualifying for next season's Champions League would represent a decent first season for the new manager.