Premier League Tipsheet: The best bets for Saturday's curtain-raisers

Stephen Tudor
05 August 2022
3.30 min read

Jurgen and his Reds are ready to step back into the fray

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Ste Tudor looks at where the goals, assists and three points will likely be found this Saturday.

"A decidedly mixed pre-season for Liverpool gave way to a more complete Community Shield performance and that further lends itself to an away win."

Back Liverpool to win, Salah to score & under 2.5 cards in a 3.39/4 Bet Builder

Fulham v Liverpool (12:30) - Normal service resumed

For the fourth year running the Reds kick-off a title-challenging campaign against a promoted side and an average of 3.3 goals scored from their previous outings suggests it is to their liking.

That certainly applies to Mo Salah, who has remarkably found the net for five consecutive seasons on the opening day. No other Premier League player has ever achieved this feat.

A decidedly mixed pre-season for Liverpool gave way to a more complete Community Shield performance and that further lends itself to an away win at Craven Cottage, an inkling strengthened by Harry Wilson's absence through injury. The Welshman carved out 19 assists for the London side last term.

Many of these were for Aleksandar Mitrovic who will be hell-bent on disproving the theory that he is too good for the second tier but largely ineffective among the elite. That cause may have to wait though.

Go for a low card count for this one. Fulham were fourth in the Championship fair play table last season. Liverpool were a saintly second in the top-flight.

Take a punt on under 2.5 cards @

1.8

Bournemouth v Aston Villa (15:00) - Reality check for the Cherries

Last season Villa's form trailed off like a man losing all confidence in a misremembered anecdote but a positive transfer window and a generally encouraging pre-season means they should be backed to start 2022/23 on a brighter note.

In Coutinho, Watkins and a fit-again Leon Bailey they absolutely have the tools to make that happen.

It is an early charge that could be founded on a comprehensive win on the south-coast even if the Cherries greatly impressed last term, losing only 17% of their league games and conceding the fewest number of goals in the Championship.

Of the last 12 promoted sides, only two have won their opening day fixture, with seven beaten by a two-goal margin or more. Sometimes there is a quick wake-up call and class tells from the off. That may be the case here.

Back Villa to have two or more shots on target in each half @

1.8

Leeds v Wolves (15:00) - History to repeat itself

Having sold their two best players over the summer, Leeds are currently an unpredictable proposition, just as capable of surprising one and all or sinking like a stone this season.

From their friendlies we can determine that Rodrigo is in goal-scoring form, putting five away across July, including a hat-trick against Cagliari. And of course, it matters that Patrick Bamford is back, fit and firing.

Last term, Rodrigo converted a 91st minute equaliser when these sides met at Elland Road beforen Luke Ayling blasted home a 94th minute winner at Molineux, but if Wolves are seeking revenge they lack the firepower to enact it.

Only two teams had fewer attempts on target in 2021/22 and by failing to recruit serious competition for Jimenez and Neto they remain shot-shy and will still be, no doubt, super cautious to compensate.

Back Leeds to win the second half @

2.6

Newcastle v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - Pride but no points for the Tricky Trees

Jesse Lingard, Nottingham Forest.jpg

The revolving door at Forest's training ground has certainly been busy this summer with 13 new arrivals and 11 departures and such a high churn-rate of players on being promoted brings to mind Fulham's disastrous over-haul in 2018.

Might the Tricky Trees similarly struggle having jeopardised the spirit of togetherness that propelled them back to the top-flight for the first time since 1999?

Possibly, but on an individual basis a case can be made for many of their new signings. Dean Henderson in goal is a terrific acquirement. If Jesse Lingard offers even glimpses of his performances for West Ham two years ago, Forest will benefit enormously.

Up front, meanwhile, Taiwo Awoniyi scored more winners than any other player in the Bundesliga last season.

If this all suggests Steve Cooper's revamped side will give a good account of themselves on Saturday it's still hard to look past Newcastle getting their first full season as the wealthiest club in the world immediately off to winning ways. For one thing, Callum Wilson loves a curtain-raiser having scored in three of the last four opening days.

Back Wilson to score or assist and BTTS in a 3.0 Bet Builder

3.0

Tottenham v Southampton (15:00) - A familiar foe

The Saints last won on the opening day all the way back in 2013 and there is scant evidence Ralph Hasenhuttl's men will emerge victorious at the weekend, coming up against a Spurs side who are much fancied this season.

Memories of Southampton doing precisely that in February, courtesy of a 3-2 win, remain fresh but overall they were poor on the road last year and only a touch better at home, a sustained decline that has prompted Hasenhuttl to press the reset button.

With the relatively youthful Joe Aribo the oldest of his seven signings it will take time for his new-look collective to find their feet and even then, it's frankly one hell of a roll of the dice.

As for Spurs, they can lay claim to having won the transfer window and their incoming personnel fascinate. But don't look past the familiar names for this one with both Harry Kane and Son Heung-min boasting prolific records at the Saints' expense. Kane in particular clearly thrives in this fixture, with 11 goals and eight assists from 18 previous meetings.

A Bet Builder of Kane to score anytime, over 3.5 goals, and Oriol Romeu to be shown a card pays @

9.0

Everton v Chelsea (17:30) - Toffees to come unstuck

When a Premier League club goes into a new season with only Salomon Rondon as a recognised centre-forward, questions must be asked, one such query being whether Rondon is even recognised anymore as a centre-forward.

Selling Richarlison felt unavoidable in the circumstances, while another injury for Dominic Calvert-Lewin is just plain bad luck. Not replacing the Brazilian however, and furthermore, loaning out up-and-coming strikers Ellis Simms and Lewis Dobbin, well, that's on the club.

The Toffees will gain encouragement from four league wins on the bounce over Chelsea at Goodison, and it's true to say the visitors are a team in flux, with a reconfigured back-line and Raheem Sterling to assimilate up front.

Everton's lightweight options in attack however counts against them and Thomas Tuchel's side should have enough.

What intrigues here are the corners. Even in beating Chelsea last term 1-0, the hosts won a mere three throughout and only Brentford, Watford and Newcastle claimed fewer in 2021/22.