Premier League Tipsheet: Six tempting bets for Saturday from 11/10 to 5/1

• Goals expected at St James Park

• City set to kill by a thousand cuts

• United to face avalanche of shots again

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Newcastle v Tottenham (12:30) - Son v Isak

Tottenham's poor away form going all the way back to early November has flown under the radar, mitigated by a number of draws and a strong run of results in North London. The stark fact is Ange Postecoglou's men have won only two in nine on the road.

The Magpies meanwhile have scored in each of their 16 outings at St James Park this term.

If that leans into a home win, Son Heung-min's outstanding contribution to 2023/24 offers up serious pause for thought, the forward boasting 24 goal involvements in his last 25 top-flight showings. He has also previously scored or assisted nine times in this fixture.

Newcastle too of course have their own prolific frontman, in the form of Alexander Isak, who has notched at least one in each of his last five home games. With an impressive 69% shot accuracy, the Swede is averaging 1.7 shots on target per 90.

Surely one of these two will feature strongly on Saturday and surely there will be goals.

The last six meetings have produced five goals per 90 while Newcastle's games this term have seen a goal converted every 23 minutes.

Brentford v Sheff Utd (15:00) - Drawing conclusions

If we place all of our faith in recent results then a draw feels nailed-on at the Gtech. In their last eight combined league fixtures, six have ended honours even.

Naturally though, context adds more to the conversation, such as highlighting the terrible rut the Bees are presently in, winless in nine.

It's a situation not helped by an inability to maintain leads, Thomas Frank's side dropping 30 points from winning positions in 2023/24. It's not helped either by Ivan Toney enduring a seven game drought, in that period taking on 21 shots and having 36 touches in the opposition box.

As for the Blades, this is their death-rattle, that time of the season when a doomed side thrashes around in desperation, a time that often produces some coupon-busting victories, yet even now, with just one loss in four, they continue to hemorrhage goals at an alarming rate.

All season long, United have been breached every 34 minutes.

With Toney misfiring we turn once again to Yoane Wissa, who we backed last week to good effect when he prodded home Brentford's third at Villa Park.

The forward has previous for scoring in batches of two and three.

Burnley v Brighton (15:00) - Smash-and-grab again

The corresponding fixture on the South Coast back in December was a rare example of the Clarets pulling off a smash-and-grab, returning north with a precious point after facing 29 shots and ceding 72% of the possession. A similar outcome cannot be discounted this weekend.

In part that's because the Seagulls' wastefulness that afternoon has now become the norm, Roberto De Zerbi's men failing to score in six of their 12 league outings in 2024.

There's also a consistently poor away record to consider, accruing a meagre 0.9 PPG since late September.

Burnley meanwhile have picked up four points from their last two at home and though that's admittedly a slight sample size, crucially they know that it's this game - along with next week's visit to Bramall Lane - that will ultimately decide their Premier League fate.

Corners are of interest here, with the hosts averaging 5.1 across their last six.

Man City v Luton (15:00) - A thousand cuts

On top of their mountain of injuries, Issa Kabore is unable to face his parent club this weekend, requiring yet more reshuffling from Rob Edwards. The Hatters are a couple of hamstring pulls away from playing the kitman at this juncture.

It's impressive how they have coped with such a volume of absences - gaining a priceless win last week against Bournemouth - but still, any result at the Etihad would be one of the stories of the season, with Luton losing all five of their previous visits to a top six club this term.

Naturally, this being Luton, only one of them was by a 3+ margin.

City know all about their opponent's propensity to stay in games, eking past them at Kenilworth Road in December, a result that needed fortitude as much as flair, so there is little chance of complacency being a factor.

Besides, this is City on the final straight. Teeth bared. Business head firmly on. This will be death by a thousand cuts, with risk kept to a minimum.

Kevin de Bruyne and Phil Foden have seemingly taken it in turns to be the difference-maker in recent weeks but here Jeremy Doku appeals, a likely starter with Guardiola having one eye on Real Madrid in the Champions League.

The Belgian has completed 4.9 successful dribbles per 90 this term.

Nottingham Forest v Wolves (15:00) - Big, bad Wolves

Set-pieces are worth watching out for at the City Ground, the visitors scoring 27% of their league haul via corners and free-kicks. Forest meanwhile have conceded a league-high 21 goals from such situations.

Results-wise, the Tricky Trees will be looking to extend on a fairly decent record at home, picking up 10 points from 21 since late December. Their home form has kept them, for the most part, out of the bottom three.

A tight home victory is therefore fancied against a Wolves side with just one win in five.

English Premier League - Top 6 Cards

Team	Played	Yellow	Red	Total	Av/Game
Spurs	38	99	4	103	2.7
Chelsea	38	90	8	98	2.6
Bournemouth	38	88	2	90	2.4
Brighton	38	86	0	86	2.3
Sunderland	38	82	3	85	2.2
Wolves	38	77	3	80	2.1

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Where Gary O'Neil's side will likely win out - reluctantly so - is in the card count.

Only a quartet of clubs have picked up more yellows in 2023/24 and Wolves are hardly cleaning up their act either, with 11 cautions in their last three outings.

Bournemouth v Man United (17:30) - Papering the cracks

The defining narrative of United's season - and perhaps even Erik Ten Hag's entire tenure - is their ability to paper over the cracks, a wholly unsustainable model that they're somehow managing to sustain.

Once again this was in evidence at Old Trafford last week, against their historical nemesis Liverpool. In a largely one-sided contest, the hosts accumulated a meagre 0.7 xG and conceded 28 shots along with seven big chances. Yet still they emerged with a point.

The sheer number of shots the Reds have faced this season - 554 all told - is so great as to make headline news, and with a seriously depleted defence heading to the South Coast we can anticipate that trend continuing.

The problem we have is in determining who will pull the trigger. Shot-shy in recent weeks, Dominic Solanke could find himself tied up in the box, creating space behind him for either Alex Scott, Justin Kluivert or Phillip Billing to capitalize on, depending on who is selected.

Kluivert is favourite in this regard, but not by much.

Instead of guessing then, let's focus on the major reason why United aren't lower in the table, that being the outstanding form of Andre Onana in nets.

Now read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship tips here