Premier League Tipsheet: Six of the best bets for Saturday from 10/11 to 6/1

Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool boss
Another struggling side, away? Bring them on.

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started...


Crystal Palace v Liverpool (12:30) - Rinse and repeat for Reds

For the second time in three days Liverpool travel to a team in the doldrums and though the Eagles at Selhurst Park are a tougher proposition to Wednesday night, a similar outcome is expected.

A "mature" performance was how Jurgen Klopp described the Reds' game-management at Bramall Lane and that sums it up well, with Liverpool controlling proceedings throughout while saving fifth gear for another day. An assist for Trent Alexander-Arnold makes it 75 across all comps since debuting in 2016. For a full-back that's just silly. Another consummate display by Dominik Szoboszlai helped too.

Mo Salah meanwhile was made to wait for his own landmark moment but he should be backed to notch his 200th Liverpool goal here, the Egyptian so often a scourge for Palace. The forward boasts 13 goal involvements from 12 previous encounters.

As for the hosts, just two chances created against Bournemouth speaks of a team desperately missing Eberechi Eze. Winless in four, they have won only once at home all season.

Back Mo Salah to score anytime @ 11/102.11

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Brighton v Burnley (15:00) - Seagulls set to take flight

In a largely forgettable game at Molineux on Tuesday night the Clarets failed to build on last weekend's reawakening, a demolition of Sheffield United that led to their first clean sheet of the season and muscle memory finally kicking in of their Championship form last term.

Even Luca Koleosho got in on the act and he seemed intent on breaking records for taking on the most shots without scoring in the top-flight.

Revived, and presumably inspired, by that emphatic result, however, all we saw was some backbone against Wolves, a resilience that ultimately didn't prove enough.

Vincent Kompany's men will have to show more here, not least because the Seagulls always give intrepid opponents a chance, last keeping a shut-out way back in mid-May.

The big, teenage-influenced problem the visitors have though is that slowly but surely Brighton are getting their mojo back. And sooner, rather than later, a team that scored 18 in their opening six fixtures are going to click again for the full ninety.

Back Brighton and over 2.5 at 1/12.00

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Man United v Bournemouth (15:00) - Finding a way

This has all the ingredients to be the most fascinating match-up of the weekend.

After finally assimilating Iraola-ball, the Cherries head to Old Trafford on a high, unbeaten in four and averaging 17 shots per 90 in that time.

Down both flanks, Antoine Semenyo and Marcus Tavernier pose a genuine threat and it's easy to imagine them isolating their opposite number and getting some joy, with United's midfield remaining ill-balanced and their counter-press negligible. Tavernier has completed 2.2 successful dribbles per 90 this season.

Up front, Dominic Solanke has fired 38.9% of Bournemouth's league goals, at a rate of a goal every other game, though he does tend to reserve his best performances for the Vitality Stadium.

Iraola.jpg

What United wouldn't give to have such firepower, instead relying on a rare but sustained streak of prolificacy from Scott McTominay. What they have too is a player in Bruno Fernandes who has created the joint highest number of chances in the Premier League (41).

Moreover, the Reds have proven form this season for somehow finding a way and if the Cherries are wasteful of their opportunities they should be mindful of a late sucker-punch. In four of their last seven outings they have conceded beyond the 88th minute.

Back Fernandes to score or assist and yes to a goal scored in both halves @ 11/82.38

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Sheff Utd v Brentford (15:00) - A shot at a second chance

The extent in which the Blades will be galvanized by the return of Chris Wilder will be much more in evidence here than on Wednesday evening.

Then, the manager who guided them to a ninth place finish in 2020, had been through the door barely five minutes. Furthermore, it was Liverpool before them, ruthless and infinitely superior.

On Saturday, it is a recently struggling Brentford facing a side potentially re-energized and reconfigured, and what is most interesting in this regard is assessing the players who already have shown signs of improvement. James McAtee put in one of his best displays of the season midweek. The same goes for Cameron Archer, who has been excellent elsewhere but only in patches.

Add Gustavo Hamer into the mix and there is sufficient attacking talent to inspire and subsequently trouble a Brentford backline that has conceded 1.8 goals per game on average since the end of October.

A draw is fancied for this one but a more conservative option is to back a normally shot-shy side to come out firing.

Back Sheff Utd to have 12 or more shots @ 10/111.91

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Wolves v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - Lessons never learnt

There is a vague memory, around the time when Forest won at Stamford Bridge, then drew at Crystal Palace soon after, when it was suggested on this very page that Steve Cooper's men might have finally resolved their issues away from home. If you're going to be wrong, be wrong.

Their meek capitulation at Craven Cottage midweek means that since gaining promotion the summer before last, the not-so-Tricky Trees have played 27 times on the road in the top-flight. They have lost 19, drawn six and won twice. The overall aggregate score-line is a resounding 62 to 17.

Yet again at Fulham, their pragmatic approach cost them dear, with just a single shot on target testament to their lack of ambition.

Wolves won this fixture 1-0 last term and a similar result seems plausible. The hosts last won a Premier League game by more than a single goal margin back in April.

It's worth noting too that both sides are in the bottom three for corners won in 2023/24.

Back Wolves to win by exactly one goal and under 9.5 corners @ 6/17.00

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Aston Villa v Arsenal (17:30) - Classic in the making

It's not often that data shares almost equal billing with a result but so magnificent were the Villans in beating Manchester City this week, the figures involved deserved to be shouted from the rooftops.

Their 22 shots was the most City have faced during the Pep Guardiola era, while last season's treble-winners were restricted to just two, a remarkable feat given their average to that point had been 16.5 per 90.

This was anything but a smash-and-grab we occasionally see City succumb to. Unai Emery's top four-chasers were the better team throughout.

And now they have to do it all again, just three days later, this time against a side emboldened by a 97th minute winner at Luton that keeps them top of the pile. This has all the makings of a classic and let's hope it is.

Arsenal have only failed to score once all term, Villa only twice. Let's go with that and strap ourselves in.

The Gunners having the best disciplinary record in the league is also a factor.

Back BTTS and Villa most cards @ 9/43.25

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Read Saturday Afternoon Championship Opta Stats here


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