English Premier League

Premier League Tipsheet: Magnificent seven bets for Saturday from 8/11 to 13/2

Jurgen klopp, Liverpool boss
Jurgen launches his campaign to have lunchtime kick-offs banned

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found in the Premier League on Saturday to get this weekend started.

Wolves v Liverpool (12:30) - Missed chances

No player has put in more crosses than Pedro Neto this season, and to good effect too. His 37 deliveries from out wide have harvested three assists.

That this amounts to three-quarters of his team's goal-haul, however, reveals that Wolves are wasteful. They look decent in the final third and construct gilt-edged opportunities, only to spurn them more times than not.

Last season, their 5.7% chance conversion rate was a league-low. Presently it's at 4.7%.

Liverpool were also guilty of profligacy last year, or at least they were in the Saturday 12:30 kick-offs, accumulating 8.56 xG from their six outings, none of which they won.

Expect a generous shot-count at Molineux, but goals may be at a premium.

Under 3.5 goals and Wolves to have 4 or more shots on target is a shout @ 4.56

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Aston Villa v Crystal Palace (15:00) - Quick off the mark

Early goals have been a feature of Aston Villa games this season, and lots of them. From their four fixtures to date, nine have been converted inside the opening 25 minutes.

It's a pattern that may be broken here, or at least where it concerns the visitors. All of Palace's five goals in 2023/24 have come in the second period.

Only Erling Haaland has taken on more shots than Eberechi Eze to date and, buoyed by an appearance off the bench at Hampden Park on Tuesday, we can expect further attacking intent that has led to a league-high of completed dribbles.

Yet it's Villa who are fancied to prevail, Unai Emery's side unbeaten at home since February, and that takes us back to the start and the possibility of an early breakthrough.

Back Villa to be ahead at the break @ 13/102.30

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Fulham v Luton (15:00) - Hatters get mad

Tom Lockyer and Alfie Doughty are both 50/50 to start and they'll be needed to shore up a Hatters' back-line that has conceded three goals per 90 so far, on what has been a brutal introduction to the Premier League.

Still, at the other end there is hope for Rob Edwards' side, cautious optimism that Craven Cottage represents an opportunity to get their first point or better on the board.

No longer out-performing their xG, the Cottagers have been breached 10 times since winning at Everton on the opening day in fortunate circumstances. Pertinently, they have also faced more shots (33) than any other side.

If Luton are to land a few blows this season, this is the time and place to start coming out swinging.

Back Luton to win by exactly one goal @ 13/27.50

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Man United v Brighton (15:00) - Hot shots

No player has created more chances from open play this season than Kaoru Mitoma and his direct running will stress-test a defence that is too often exposed and may be suspect minus Raphael Varane.

Evan Ferguson too will be a prominent threat, assuming a knee problem has eased. The 18-year-old has accrued a shot on target every 22.8 minutes this term.

Which inevitably brings us to Brighton's shot-haul, a remarkable tally last season and this term. The Seagulls have taken on the most shots following high turnovers (13) while their 36 shots on target is almost double that of United's.

Ten Hag.jpg

Erik Ten Hag's men may boast a formidable record at Old Trafford but all is not right at present and they could find themselves outclassed at the weekend.

They won't be the first side to suffer this fate against brilliant Brighton, and they won't be the last.

Back 12 or more match shots on target @ 11/102.11

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Tottenham v Sheff United (15:00) - Son is shining

A league goal scored every 32 minutes is proof enough that Ange Postecoglou's adventurous approach has been quickly embraced by a group of players that were previously tethered.

Son Heung-min looks transformed under his new gaffer and that's a scary proposition for the Blades because the Korean striker loves playing against recently promoted sides, scoring or assisting 31 times in 31 games.

James Maddison, meanwhile, has been at the heart of Tottenham's creative endeavours, averaging 2.5 key passes and 1.8 successful dribbles per 90.

Despite results going against them, United have acclimatized fairly well to a higher level, but at the cost of discipline, seeing three yellows per game.

Back Spurs to score 2+ goals, Spurs 6+ corners, and Sheff Utd 3+ cards as an OddsBoost @ 7/24.50

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West Ham v Man City (15:00) - Erling the Inevitable

Erling Haaland's first four games this term uncannily mirror his first four last season, with a brace, a blank, a single strike, and a hat-trick occurring then and now.

What should concern the Hammers is that in his fifth appearance in 2022/23, the phenomenal Norwegian blasted another treble.

It's a threat made more substantial by the fact that Haaland's opening-day brace last year came at the London Stadium, later notching against them at the Etihad for good measure.

We should not easily dismiss West Ham's fine start - their joint-best in the Premier League at this early juncture - nor their form players in Lucas Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen.

But City have a ridiculous record in this fixture, unbeaten in 15, with a 22-4 aggregate scoreline during Pep Guardiola's reign.

With Haaland clearly a fan of coming up against the Hammers back-line, sometimes you just have to cede to what feels like the inevitable.

Haaland to score in first half; 2+ first half goals & West Ham most cards offers up 6/17.00

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Newcastle v Brentford (17:30) - Goals for tea

Having lost three of their opening four, this feels like a must-win for the Magpies and Eddie Howe as the top four threatens to pull away.

They would have hoped for easier opponents than a Brentford side that has lost just once in their last 11 league outings, including wins at Stamford Bridge and Tottenham.

Indeed, it is testament to the Bees' levels that a good performance in the North-East can almost be expected. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have superbly compensated for the absence of Ivan Toney with an avalanche of goals. The pair have fired 11 combined in their last seven games.

As for Newcastle, they have shown under Howe a propensity to respond well when pressure is applied, and this is especially true at home, roared on by their passionate fan-base.

This is a tricky one to call but a goal-less damp squib feels highly unlikely.

Back BTTS @ 8/111.73

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.