Opta Festive Football Guide: Premier League bets for crucial Christmas fixtures

• Newcastle go to Man Utd on Boxing to get MD18 started

• Rogers aiming to strike twice for Villa in third game in row

• Crucial period in the title race and relegation battle

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It's the most wonderful time of the year - the festive Premier League schedule is upon us. This year's Boxing Day offering might be limited to one game, with Manchester United welcoming Newcastle United to Old Trafford - Betfair ambassador Alan Shearer expects a cracking game - but there is still plenty on the menu for fans.

There will be two full slates of games played between Boxing Day and New Year's Day, with Monday December 29 and New Year's Eve the only Premier League-free days.

Arsenal will spend Christmas Day at the top of the tree for the fifth time, though they have never previously captured the title from such a position. The Gunners are at home twice before the turn of the year, but both Brighton and Hove Albion and Aston Villa should provide stern tests.

That latter fixture could be one of the highlights of the festive calendar, with Villa just three points back of Mikel Arteta's leaders. Manchester City are two points off the top, with trips to Nottingham Forest and Sunderland in the diary.

At the other end of the table, Wolves could claim the unwanted record for the worst-ever start to a Premier League season outright, as they travel to Anfield and Old Trafford, while Leeds United will look to pull further clear of danger.

Ahead of a jam-packed run of games, we take a deep dive into the Opta data to pick out the key storylines and trends to watch and highlight a few tempting festive flutters.

Emery faces Arsenal reunion as title race hots up

While Arsenal lead the way at the summit and Man City are in hot pursuit after five straight victories, 2025/26 could see a genuine three-horse race for the title.

Two outstanding finishes from Morgan Rogers guided Aston Villa to a 2-1 victory over Manchester United last time out, their 10^th straight win in all competitions.

It is the first time Villa have won 10 straight matches as a top-flight team since 1914, and only in 2023/24 have they had more points at Christmas during a Premier League season (39 on that occasion, 36 this term).

Villa are currently 28/129.00 to win the title on Betfair's sportsbook, with Arsenal 8/131.61 and Man City 13/102.30.

The Opta supercomputer makes the Gunners favourites with a 68.6% probability, compared to City's 24.7% and Villa's 5.3%. Emery's men are clearly long shots (more on those later), but that figure does imply there is value in their outright price.

Ssceptics will say Villa are drastically overperforming and are destined to drop off at some point, with their latest win amplifying the debate around their expected goals (xG) figures.

Rogers had a game-high seven shots against Man Utd, though the two efforts that found the net only had a combined xG value of 0.06, with Villa consistently scoring more goals than they would be expected to based on the quality of chances they are creating.

Villa are 15^th in Opta's expected points table and their xG overperformance of +8.3 (27 goals, 18.7 xG) is the largest in the division.

Trips to Chelsea on December 27 and Arsenal three days later are sure to test their credentials. Villa are outsiders for both games, priced at 13/53.60 to win at Stamford Bridge (Chelsea 8/111.73, draw 11/53.20) and a juicy 11/26.50 for victory at the Emirates (Arsenal 2/51.40, draw 13/53.60).

Should Villa extend their winning run to 12 games by the new year, then regardless of what the underlying data says, they will have to be taken seriously.

If Villa's title push is to continue, Rogers will have a key role to play. He has scored seven goals from 2.9 xG in the Premier League this season, with his +4.1 xG overperformance the second-highest of any player across Europe's big five leagues, after Harry Kane (+6.0). He is 7/24.50 to score against Chelsea or 9/52.80 for a goal involvement.

No Villa player since Dion Dublin in 1998 has scored twice in three straight Premier League games. Backing Rogers to break that streak returns 30/131.00.

Rogers has now fired off 12 shots across Villa's last two matches and has hit the target at least twice in three of his last six. Against Chelsea, prices of 11/26.50 for him to attempt at least four shots, or 7/24.50 to get two on target, both look tempting. A bet on Morgan to have 3+ total shots landed in our most-recent Bet Builder, and can be backed at 11/53.20 to land against Chelsea.

Before hosting Villa, Arsenal take on Brighton on December 27.

It could be another case of Bah Humbug for Fabian Hurzeler, who has overseen more Premier League games in December without achieving a single victory than any other manager in the competition's history (10 - six draws, four defeats).

Arsenal are 4/111.36 to see off the Seagulls, who are 11/26.50 for victory or 3/14.00 to be held to a draw.

Arteta has not ruled out the prospect of Gabriel Magalhaes returning from injury before the turn of the year, which would be a further boost for the league's best defence.

Brighton have failed to score in their last two games, and Arsenal are a very tempting 6/42.50 to win that game to nil. All three of the Gunners' home Premier League wins against Brighton have been by a 2-0 scoreline, which is 6/17.00 on the correct score market.

As for the Villa game, it's worth noting that since Arteta replaced Emery at the Emirates, Arsenal have lost four of eight matches against their former boss (two wins, two draws). Pep Guardiola (18.8%) and Jurgen Klopp (21.4%) are the only managers against whom Arteta has a worse win ratio (25%).

In-form Man City eyeing festive double

Pep Guardiola will be an interested viewer for that Arsenal-Villa game, and away games against Forest (December 27) and Sunderland (January 1) offer his Man City team a chance for maximum points over the festive period.

They are 8/151.53 to win at the City Ground (Forest 7/24.50, draw 5/23.50), and 4/91.44 for victory at the Stadium of Light (Sunderland 9/25.50, draw 13/53.60). A double on City to win both games pays 1/12.00.

City have won five straight league games, scoring three or more goals in each victory (17 in total). They are 17/29.50 to net over 2.5 goals at Forest, or 4/15.00 to beat a -2 handicap.

Erling Haaland has been in stunning form lately, with his 19 goals before Christmas matching the Premier League record jointly held by Andy Cole (1993-94), Kevin Phillips (1999-00) and Luis Suarez (2013-14). He is now a staggeringly short 1/331.03 to win the Golden Boot, with Igor Thiago and Hugo Ekitike - both 40/141.00 - the only other players priced below 50/1.

Haaland has had plenty of support lately, with both Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki impressing.

Foden is one of just five players from Europe's top five leagues to have recorded 10 goal involvements since November 1 (eight goals, two assists), and he is 2/13.00 to score at Forest.

In that same timeframe, no player can better Cherki's six assists, and it is 15/82.88 for the former Lyon man to gift one of his team-mates a goal on December 27.

Liverpool lose Isak but revival to continue with Hugo firing

Liverpool are only outside the top four on goal difference, and they are 4/111.36 to secure a top four finish by the end of the campaign, following a mini revival.

The 2-1 victory over Thomas Frank's troubled Tottenham extended the Reds' unbeaten run in all competitions to six matches (four wins, two draws), having lost nine of their previous 12 games (three wins). In Premier League action exclusively, only Villa (seven games) are on a longer unbeaten run than Liverpool (five).

That win over Spurs came at a cost, though. Arne Slot lost striker Alexander Isak to what has now been confirmed as a fractured fibula, but with Wolves and Leeds United visiting Anfield over the next two matchdays, Liverpool will still be confident of taking maximum points.

Liverpool are 1/61.17 to beat a Wolves team currently on course to be the worst in Premier League history on December 27 (draw 4/15.00, Wolves 10/111.00).

The Reds have won 16 of their last 17 league games against Wolves, with the exception being a 3-0 loss at Molineux in February 2023, and this could be an opportunity for them to rack up the goals.

Hugo Ekitike has scored on each of his last three league appearances (five goals in total) and could become the first Liverpool player other than Mohamed Salah to score in four consecutive top-flight outings since Sadio Mane in February 2019.  

With Isak sidelined and Salah representing Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco, the Frenchman will have a pivotal role to play over the Christmas period. Ekitike is 8/131.61 to score anytime against Wolves, or 11/43.75 to net multiple goals.

Wolves - who have lost 11 consecutive games in all competitions - have a funny habit of reaching half-time level then losing, having done so in all six of their matches under Rob Edwards to date. Draw/Liverpool is 16/54.20 on the half-time/full-time market.

This game could also be an opportunity for Florian Wirtz to finally get into his stride, having finally registered a Premier League goal involvement at the 16^th attempt against Spurs, assisting Isak's opener.

The 27 chances Wirtz has created in the Premier League this season are at least seven more than any other player with a maximum of one goal involvement (Pedro Porro has 20).

The German is yet to score for the Reds in any competition and is 7/52.40 to get off the mark against Wolves, while he can be backed to record another assist at 13/102.30 and is 4/71.57 for a goal involvement of either kind.

Liverpool are then 2/51.40 to defeat Leeds, who are 9/25.50 to claim a surprise Anfield victory - as they did back in October 2022 - or 11/43.75 to earn a draw.

These fixtures look like an ideal chance for Liverpool to truly get back on track. A title challenge seems out of reach (0.1% according to the supercomputer), but backing the Reds to treat themselves to a festive feast of goals could bring value.

It is 4/91.44 for Liverpool to score the first goal of the first half against Wolves, while Liverpool to win and score over 2.5 goals is 4/71.57, and over 3.5 is 7/52.40. The Reds to have 7+ shots on target is 8/151.53, and it is 11/102.11 for them to register 8+.

While Liverpool will be fancied at home against Leeds, the Whites fought back to draw 3-3 at Elland Road earlier in December.

Liverpool can be backed at 2/13.00 to win in a game in which both teams score, and it is 8/151.53 for goals to be scored in each half.

Two crucial home games for Man Utd

Manchester United are another team that will play two home games without one of their star names over the next few days.

The Red Devils face Newcastle on Boxing Day and Wolves on December 30, and having already lost Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo to AFCON, they also expect to be without Bruno Fernandes for at least a month after he suffered a muscle injury against Villa.

Fernandes has been crucial for Ruben Amorim this campaign, assisting in five straight away matches before the Villa defeat.

Captain Fernandes has recorded at least five more goal involvements (12 - five goals and seven assists) and has created at least 23 more chances (51) than any other United player in the Premier League this season.

Since Amorim took the reins, United have only played two games without Fernandes appearing, and they have lost both. Since the start of 2022/23, meanwhile, United have not won any of their seven top-flight games without Fernandes in their starting lineup, only netting four times in those matches.

Newcastle are 3/14.00 to keep a clean sheet on Boxing Day or 9/25.50 to win to nil. But United are still favourites on the match result market at 13/102.30, with the Magpies 6/42.50 and the draw 21/103.10.

Both teams have scored in two of the last three meetings between these teams. BTTS yes is available at 8/151.53, while United win and BTTS is 3/14.00. Newcastle can be backed at 7/24.50 on the same market.

And there have been plenty of goals in these teams' recent matches. Since losing to Everton 1-0, United have scored 12 goals across their last five league fixtures, conceding nine. Newcastle, on the other hand, have scored 12 goals in their last six top-flight games, shipping eight.

Without Fernandes and Mbeumo, United's foremost goal threat could be Matheus Cunha, who has scored in back-to-back Premier League games after only netting once in his first 12 for United.

Cunha is 17/102.70 to score against Newcastle or 9/110.00 to net first and has averaged 4.1 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season - the most of any player to have played at least 400 minutes. He is 8/151.53 to attempt at least four against Newcastle, who have been vulnerable at the back lately, or 4/42.00 to fire off five or more.

Haaland (2.27) and Junior Kroupi (1.8) are the only qualifying players to better Cunha's 1.57 shots on target per 90 this season, and he is 11/82.38 to get multiple efforts on target versus Newcastle.

Cunha will then look to have a decisive impact against his former club Wolves, having fired off eight shots without success in United's 4-1 victory at Molineux earlier this month.

United are 1/41.25 to win that game, with Wolves 15/28.50 and the draw 7/24.50.

Two victories would go some way to dispelling the ghosts of Christmases past, with United losing their last three Premier League matches played between Christmas and New Year, as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 43 such matches (32 wins, eight draws).

The Red Devils then face a Leeds team who will be coming off the back of a trip to Anfield, so this is a real opportunity for Amorim's team to stake their claim.

United are 5/16.00 to secure a top-four finish, though the Opta supercomputer only assigns them a 5.6% chance of doing so.

After an up-and-down campaign so far and some disappointing recent home results, the festive fixtures for United will be crucial to setting the narrative going into the second half of the season, so the pressure is on despite their key absences.

Tottenham, Palace and Bournemouth need Christmas cheer

One theme of 2025/26 has been the congested nature of the table, and with 17 matchdays gone, only seven points separate fourth-placed Chelsea from Bournemouth in 14^th.

Andoni Iraola's Cherries have failed to win any of their last eight league games (four draws, four defeats), dropping more points late on in a 1-1 draw with Burnley last time out.

Since the start of November, only Burnley (one) and Wolves (0) have picked up fewer points than Bournemouth's four, and things do not get much easier for them with trips to Brentford and Chelsea coming up.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last eight league matches in London (two wins, six draws), but if they are to enjoy more success in the capital, Antoine Semenyo may have to shoulder the attacking burden.

Semenyo has been involved in 20 Premier League goals in 2025, scoring 14 and assisting six. That is the joint-most goal involvements by a Cherries player in a calendar year, along with Dominic Solanke in 2023 (15 goals, five assists), with Ghana's failure to qualify for AFCON representing a major boost for Iraola's men.

Semenyo - who has been linked with a big-money move to Manchester City, Manchester United or Liverpool - is 11/53.20 to score or 6/42.50 to score or assist at Brentford, where Bournemouth are outsiders at 7/42.75.

They are then 7/24.50 to triumph at Chelsea, who are 8/151.53 to earn three points. The Blues only lost three home Premier League games in 2024/25, but they have already suffered two such defeats in 2025/26.

Bournemouth enter the festive period level on points with Tottenham, with the pressure already firmly on Frank just six months into his reign.

Spurs will remain in London throughout the festive period, travelling to Crystal Palace on December 28 then going to Brentford on New Year's Day, but they may just be relieved to get away from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Tottenham have lost 11 home league games in 2025, the most in a single calendar year in their club history.

Even on their travels, they are significant outsiders against a Palace team that have wobbled themselves lately, at 21/103.10. The Eagles are 1/12.00 for victory, while the draw is 15/82.88. 

However, one positive omen for Spurs is that they have only lost their final league game in one of the last 16 calendar years (eight wins, seven draws), going down 3-1 at home to Wolves in 2018. They are 4/61.67 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market.

If Spurs are beaten at Selhurst Park, an already awkward reunion with Frank's former employers at the Gtech Community Stadium could have huge ramifications for the Dane. The Bees are 6/52.20 to win that game, with Spurs 7/42.75 and the draw 2/13.00.

As things stand, the Opta supercomputer fancies Brentford to finish above Spurs, with the Bees finishing 10^th most often across 10,000 season simulations (10.3% chance). Tottenham's most common position was 13^th (10.3%), and they are odds-against to make the top 10 on the Betfair Sportsbook, at 6/42.50.

A top-six finish for Spurs would have seemed like the minimum requirement this term initially - that is now available at 9/110.00. Given the congested nature of the league, it is not out of the question, but Frank must quickly get things back on course.

Palace have also endured a downturn lately, and a defeat to Spurs would equal their longest losing run in the Premier League under Oliver Glasner (three straight losses in September and October 2024).

But the Eagles have won their final league game in each of the last four calendar years and over the course of 2025 they have earned 23 more points than Spurs (59 to 36).

Palace occupy eighth, but the supercomputer still hands them a 28% chance of a top-six finish, which is 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook. The Eagles are 2/51.40 to finish in the top half.

Leeds aim to continue revival but Wolves are sinking

As for the relegation battle, Wolves could make an unwanted piece of history when they visit Liverpool and United, having only taken two points from 17 matches this season.

That is the joint-worst start to any Premier League campaign, alongside Sheffield United in 2020-21. The Blades won their 18^th match of that season, so if Wolves fail to win three points from their next two games, they will own the outright record.

Meanwhile, the only team in English top-flight history to go at least 18 matches from the start of a season without winning is Bolton Wanderers' class of 1902-03 (first 22).

This Wolves side is historically poor, and a price of 10/111.00 for them to break Derby County's record for the fewest points in a Premier League season (11 in 2007-08) will soon be slashed if their wait for a win extends into January and beyond. At present, the Opta supercomputer forecasts Wolves to finish on 19 points.

Rob Edwards has not enjoyed anything approaching a new manager bounce since swapping Middlesbrough for a Molineux return, and he could become just the second manager in Premier League history to lose his first seven matches in charge of a club (after Mick McCarthy lost his first nine with Sunderland).

Wolves have only scored two goals under Edwards, and Liverpool are 10/111.91 to beat them to nil, with Man Utd 6/52.20 to do likewise. A double on Wolves to lose both of their festive matchups to nil pays a tempting 3/14.00.

Burnley are deemed most likely to join Wolves in the second tier, with the Opta supercomputer also seeing them as overwhelmingly likely to suffer relegation, with an 89.5% probability. The Clarets need points over the next two matchdays when they play at home to Everton and Newcastle.

West Ham are also odds-on for the drop at 1/21.50, with the Irons going down in 61.8% of the supercomputer's simulations. Nuno Espirito Santo's team face a crucial run of fixtures in the next couple of weeks, hosting Fulham and Brighton before they visit Wolves on 3 January.

Leeds have drifted out to 5/16.00 to make an immediate return to the Championship, with Nottingham Forest 5/16.00 on the back of Monday's loss to Fulham.

At 22.2% and 11.6%, respectively, they are the only other teams assigned more than a one-in-10 chance of relegation by the supercomputer, so it looks like three from five at the bottom - with Fulham's win over Forest pulling Marco Silva's side clear of the scrap.

Leeds' odds could shorten given they visit Sunderland and Liverpool over the festive period, while Forest face Man City and Everton in a tough home double-header.

Daniel Farke's men have put together a four-match unbeaten streak (two wins, two draws), which is all the more impressive for the fact all of those matches have come against teams starting the day above them in the table.

Leeds are 13/82.63 to defeat Sunderland, or 4/91.44 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market. But punters get more value from backing in-form striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Calvert-Lewin is looking to score in six Premier League appearances in a row for the first time in his career - the last Leeds player to score in six top-flight games in a row was John McCole in 1959-60.

His hot streak has been no fluke, either, with his six non-penalty Premier League goals coming from an xG figure of 5.5 - the fourth-highest of any player, behind only Haaland (14.5), Jean-Philippe Mateta (7.7) and Mbeumo (5.6). Only Haaland (0.89) and Mbeumo (0.5), meanwhile, have a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than his (0.48).

Calvert-Lewin is 12/53.40 to score anytime against Sunderland, 14/115.00 to net twice and 6/17.00 to score first; given the Black Cats have allowed their opponents the third-most shots per 90 in the Premier League this season (14.8), that price looks tempting.

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