A London derby kicks off this Saturday's Premier League action between two sides vying for European football but in poor form. Hosts Brentford 1/12.00 are just one point behind sixth place Chelsea with visitors Fulham 9/43.25 just three points back on the Bees. However, over the last eight matches combined for the two sides, it's just one win to show for their efforts. Brentford come into this having drawn their last four games, having previously only drawn four all season. Fulham on the otherhand, have had the fewest draws in the division with just five. With the carrot of European football, is the pressure getting to both sides or have they simply run out of gas? It's hard to know so it's an easy decision to sit this game out with plenty of other great betting opportunities later in the day.
After their 4-0 drubbing at West Ham last weekend, Wolves have now failed to win 33 of their last 36 Premier League matches so we can straight away begin with opposing them here. Hosts Leeds were very impressive in their 2-1 win at Man Utd and with that victory moved themselves six points clear of the drop and with remaining fixtures that include games versus all of Burnley, Tottenham and West Ham, survival is firmly in their hands. Leeds are only 4/71.57 to win but we can boost that to 17/201.85 by backing Over 1.5 goals alongside it. 16 of Rob Edwards' 21 games in charge have seen Over 1.5 goals (76%) and six of Leeds' eight leagues wins have been greater than 1-0 including the 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture.
Back Leeds to win and Over 1.5 goals
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This is fourteenth hosting eleventh, so straight away Newcastle odds-on at 19/201.95 seems a little disingenuous. The home side have won only 12 of 32 Premier League games (38%) yet the odds imply they have a 51% chance of winning. Bournemouth are having another good season and only Arsenal and Man City have lost fewer games than the Cherries seven meaning they are unbeaten in 78% of matches. They come into this off the back of a 12 game unbeaten run with a terrific win at leaders Arsenal last time out. Bournemouth have already drawn 2-2 here in the FA Cup this season after leading 2-1 and are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with Newcastle.
Back Bournemouth and Draw Double Chance
Despite the arrival of new manager Roberto De Zerbi, things are starting to look desperate for Tottenham as they slipped into the relegation zone last weekend and are now two points adrift of safety with just six games to go and odds-on at 17/201.85 to go down. Big wins for West Ham on Friday and Leeds at Old Trafford on Monday night have piled the pressure on. And for the other side down there in Nottingham Forest they host Burnley this weekend with odds of 1/21.50 expecting a home win.
There weren't many positives to take from the Sunderland defeat, as they were out-possessed by a side with the fifth lowest average possession this season, created just one big chance from only 11 shots and lost the xG battle 1.33 - 0.84. They now host De Zerbi's ex-side in Brighton who are on a high having won five of their last six matches. It's seven defeats in eight for Spurs and their record at home of only two wins in sixteen games makes for ugly reading. No side has lost more games at home than their 10 so it's an easy decision to back Brighton to win with the security of the draw.
Back Brighton Draw No Bet
Liam Rosenior looks under real pressure with three straight Premier League defeats and being knocked out 8-2 on aggregate by PSG. With them sixth and four points adrift of Liverpool in fifth, it means their hopes of finishing top five and playing Champions League football next season currently stand at 15/82.88. Man Utd in third have wobbled of late with two defeats in four but the appointment of Michael Carrick seems to have worked with them having picked up the most points in the league since his arrival in mid-January. Goals have come in buckets under both managers with Rosenior's matches averaging 3.76 goals per-game and Carrick's averaging 3.09 per-game. We can back Over 2.75 goals here, meaning we'll see a payout with three or more goals.
Back Over 2.75 goals in Chelsea v Man Utd
Back Leeds and Over 1.5 goals, Bournemouth-Draw Double Chance, Brighton Draw No Bet and Over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Man Utd