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Premier League Predictions: Opta Stats Number Crunch MD6

Alexander Boyes
02 September 2022
3:00 min read

Guardiola's Man City - and his main man Erling Haaland - look set for victory at Villa Park

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Betfair's Stats guru Alex Boyes runs you through the pre-match Opta stats to to aid your football betting ahead of the midweek action
As patterns of the new season begin to emerge through five games, all Betfair Bets are driven by the data
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Everton v Liverpool

Everton to feel the blues

The Opta Stat:

"Everton boss Frank Lampard has lost all four of his Premier League meetings with Liverpool's Jürgen Klopp, with his sides conceding at least two goals each time (11 in total). Indeed, three of Mohamed Salah's four Premier League goals for Liverpool against Everton have come at Goodison Park, where only Michael Owen (4) has scored more away goals for the Reds against the Toffees in the competition"

The Betfair Bet:

Back Liverpool (-1) to win and Salah to score anytime @ 2.8815/8

Read Kevin Hatchard's Merseyside Derby preview here!

Brentford v Leeds United

Referee to earn his money

The Opta Stat:

"After their game against Everton, Leeds had conceded more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season (65). They've committed at least 10 fouls in each of their last 20 Premier League matches, the longest such run since Brighton did so in 23 consecutive games between August 2018 and January 2019."

The Betfair Bet:

Back over 3.5 cards for both teams combined @ 1.738/11

Chelsea v West Ham United

Sterling to pound Hammers

The Opta Stat:

"Raheem Sterling has scored three goals in his last two Premier League games for Chelsea - he's also been involved in more Premier League goals against West Ham than he has any other opponent (14 - 8 goals, 6 assists). In fact, Chelsea's Raheem Sterling has scored against West Ham at four different venues in the Premier League (Anfield, Upton Park, Etihad Stadium, London Stadium)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Raheem Sterling to score anytime @ 2.8815/8

Newcastle United v Crystal Palace

Magpies can pepper Palace's goal

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle are averaging 13 shots-per-game in the Premier League this season, their highest in a single campaign since 2013-14 (15.2). Meanwhile, their average of five shots on target per game is their highest in the competition since 2002-03 (5.6)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Newcastle to have 5+ shots on target and Isak to have 2+ @ 2.68/5

Nottingham Forest v Bourenmouth

Sides to cancel each other out

The Opta Stat:

"Bournemouth have had fewer shots (26), fewer shots on target (9) and a lower expected goals tally (1.75) than any other side in the Premier League this season. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile. have faced more shots (96), more shots on target (39) and have the highest expected goals against total (11.3) of any side in the Premier League this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back the draw @ 3.55/2

Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham

Another record for Kane

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 42 goals in Premier League London derbies - one more will see him equal Thierry Henry for the most such goals in the competition's history."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Kane to score and equal Henry @ 1.84/5

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton

BTTS - the rest is up for grabs

The Opta Stat:

"Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side since Ralph Hasenhüttl took charge in December 2018 (89). However, no side has claimed more points from behind this season than Saints (7), with both of their wins and their one draw coming having conceded the first goal."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both teams to score at Molineux @ 1.738/11

Aston Villa v Manchester City

The Haaland Bandwagon

The Opta Stat:

"Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in his first five Premier League appearances for Manchester City, a record for a player in their first five games in the competition. The fastest a player has scored 10 goals is six matches, set by Mick Quinn back in December 1992. He is also looking to become the first ever player to score a hat-trick in three consecutive Premier League appearances."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Haaland to make Premier League history with a third treble in a row @ boosted odds of 12.011/1

Read Paul Higham's match preview here!

Brighton & Hove Albion v Leicester City

Sunday Funday

The Opta Stat:

"Of the 65 instances of a team playing 100+ games on a specific day of the week in the Premier League, Leicester's Sunday games have the highest goals-per-game average in the competition. The Foxes have scored 188 and conceded 179 in 110 Sunday games for an average of 3.3."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS and over 2.5 goals in a Betfair Bet Builder @ 2.1411/10

Manchester United v Arsenal

Theatre of dreams & nightmares

The Opta Stat:

"Arsenal have lost more Premier League away games against Manchester United than they have vs any other opponent (17), while only at Anfield (69) have they conceded more away goals than at Old Trafford (49). Manchester United, however, have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, inclduing conceding in their last eight at home in this fixture."

The Betfair Bet:

Back the 1-1 correct score at anytime @ 2.26/5

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Premier League Predictions: Opta Stats Number Crunch MD6

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Everton to feel the blues

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Magpies can pepper Palace's goal

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Sides to cancel each other out

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Magpies can pepper Palace's goal

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